Let us put out the fire FIRST, and deal with the CULPRIT later OR History WILL Judge us also CULPABLE – and RIGHTLY SO!

 

April 8, 2008

OUR MOTHER ETHIOPIA IS BURNING – How So? As discussed below the problems our Motherland faces today are results of multiple causes which have combined to produce a situation which appear to defy solution. I do not believe those who have committed their time and efforts to finding political solutions to the problems in Ethiopia always appreciate the roles of each of these factors. Failure to acknowledge these multiple facets, in my opinion, is the main reason why the problems appear intractable. Most of the facets listed below are interdependent and in a healthy, positive, interactive, problem-solving, and conflict-prevention/resolution environment, they should challenge all concerned and stimulate responses and courses of actions which would benefit all and lead to harmonious coexistence among Ethiopians, between Ethiopia and its neighbors, and between Ethiopia and the international community. The most difficult problem Ethiopia faces as it struggles to throw off the current yoke of repression is the inability to put up a credible opposition against Meles – The world just doesn’t know who to embrace in his place! It is immensely important for all to understand that the Horn of Africa is crucial to the world for many reasons I will discuss below, and no political movement will get power in Ethiopia without having a good grasp of all the issues involved and a convincing program to bring peace within the country and its neighborhood! Because of its geo-political and economic prominence in the world, future leadership of Ethiopia, and indeed the entire Horn of Africa, must have the confidence of its people and the support of the powerful nations, notably the USA. Here are some of the factors responsible for the Burning of Ethiopia:

 

Nature

Famine

Flood

Disease

 

We cannot control the weather cycles but can certainly modify its impact on the lives of Ethiopians. For instance, Ethiopia is a source of the longest and largest river in Africa – the Nile, which flows out of Ethiopia to give livelihood to millions in the Sudan and Egypt. Yet Ethiopians chronically suffer because of famine and starvation. Health/ill-health is a function of state of nutrition! A nation that cannot feed itself is prone to all sorts of diseases. The endemicity of a given disease is also a factor which depends on the availability of natural and national resource availability and distribution, and the latter is subject to human manipulations.

 

Politics

International

USA

China

Radical Islamic Terrorists

 

It is a different world since September 11, 2001! The international community led by the current US administration has declared an all-out war against the Islamic radical terrorists and it appears the Horn of Africa is the natural place for the latter to seek a safe haven, and the terrorists seem to have found a conducive environment in the failed state of Somalia – a traditional enemy of Ethiopia and a major destabilizing presence. The dictator in Ethiopia and the US, have established partnership in combating this common enemy – the Islamist terrorists. While it is desirable the world gets rid of the Islamist Fundamentalism, it is now doubtful that the method used against them is working! Now that Ethiopia is up to its neck in the Somalia crisis the question is what is in store for Ethiopia in the aftermath of its invasion of Somalia! China is happy to step in provide Meles with what the West would not give him, in order to get the market share of whatever Ethiopia has to offer! Here Meles finds himself comfortably situated in a role where he can play what remains of the East against the Superpower representing the West. And the victims? …...YOU GUESSED RIGHT! Why does that sound so familiar?

 

Regional

Eritrea

Arabs

Iran

 

Eritrea is posed in the north to strike into Ethiopia at the earliest opportunity, to reclaim Badme. It has tried to destabilize Ethiopia through its encouragement of the ICU (Islamic Courts Union) in Somalia who declared Jihad against Ethiopia. It is also supporting OLF and ONLF, the two movements that want to take away their slice of Ethiopia just like Eritrea did over a decade ago. The Arabs have been pouring money and material into Somalia to support the ICU in its war against Ethiopia. Iran has been infiltrating into Somalia and also apparently indoctrinating young Ethiopians with the view to challenge the Arab Sunni world for the regional dominance. With the knowledge of what is going on in Lebanon and Iraq, one gets some idea about where the Iranian Influence would lead Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa. Egypt, Sudan and their Arab brothers on the Arabian Peninsula would do anything to weaken any administration in Ethiopia for fear that a strong Ethiopian Government may threaten their livelihood by harnessing the Nile for the development of Ethiopia, a situation which would naturally develop if Ethiopia decided to stop its internal debilitating conflict and focus on the development of its resources!

 

National

EPRDF

Opposition

Ethnic Politics

Religious Politics

 

To maintain its oligarchy in Ethiopia while at the same time reserving its right to secede the TPLF created an interesting political arrangement which should really not work in the 21st Century in a political arena in which a population have the will to fight for their rights – They created a façade called EPRDF to lull the country into a false sense of National unity, while TPLF ruled as a colonizing power with the right of declaring the independence of Tigray if the going got tough. This is after giving independence to Eritrea (Meles’s Motherland) without consulting Ethiopia and rendering Ethiopia landlocked! Ethiopia, a nation of over 80 million people, took all this on the chin with an occasional whimper of protestation! Further, TPLF fooled the entire nation with the promise of regional autonomy up to and including independence based on ethnic identities! In spite of the aforesaid, the nation bought this hook line and sinker, in the euphoria of possible self-rule!  Seventeen years into Meles’s misrule nobody appears to be brave enough to admit how foolish they were, and the ethnic movements are stuck to their half-baked, communist-cum-capitalist doctrines and globe-trotting in search of God knows what! Meles is also alleged to have set Muslims against Christians to start inter-religious conflict in the hope that there will be a fundamentalist movement in Ethiopia and its neighborhoods with the view of ensuring the inflow of financial and military support from the USA. He seems to have partially succeeded!

 

The National political opposition parties have been very vocal in their condemnation of Meles for stealing the People’s vote in the 2005 May elections. In spite of the outpouring of emotions sparked by this flagrant disregard for the people’s democratic will, the major opposition parties have completely failed to do the most obvious thing to reclaim the people’s vote – they failed to UNITE against this regime which treats Ethiopia and Ethiopians with utter contempt. It was shocking to us all when Kinijit dismantled itself in a shameful and public way, thereby rendering a trusting public without leadership! The opposition failed:

 

To represent Ethiopia

To stand up for the masses who took to the streets to demonstrate for their stolen votes and died or got maimed in the process.

To speak for Ethiopia in the run up to the current invasion of Somalia

To give leadership to ordinary Ethiopians with regards to the way out in the current crisis with Ethiopian involvement in Somalia

To fight for the young men and women of the Ethiopian armed forces who are fighting and dying in Somalia in a war the majority of Ethiopians did not approve of.

TO GIVE THE COUNTRY AN ALTERNATIVE TO THE DICTATOR IN ADDDIS ABABA, at a time when the country is in a real danger of disintegration.

 

Local

EPRDF

Opposition

Ethnic Politics

Religious Politics

 

Having fallen under the spell of the TPLF leadership’s doctrine of communist’s rule with an outlook of capitalism, the local politicians have established the system where they and their TPLF master’s benefit at the expense of the masses that have nobody to turn to!

 

Economics

International

Red Sea

Gulf of Aden

Horn of Africa

Natural Resources in Ethiopia

 

The Red Sea and Gulf of Aden link the East and the West via the Suez Canal. It is an international waterway of an eminent economic proportion! Control of this waterway has and will always have a very important implication for the world community. Those who seek to control it don’t necessarily have the interest of the countries in the neighborhood at heart. Who cares about who rules the countries in the region, as long as their own economic interests are taken care of! – A great folly in my view. “We win, you lose” is a foolish strategy, it never works – not for long anyway! So the Horn of Africa is a playground for the economic giants and the current rulers in the region are just the instruments to facilitate their games.

 

Regional

Eritrea

Somalia

Sudan

Egypt

 

Eritrea makes mockery of the word “Independent”, because there is nothing about it which is independent – it cannot harvest enough and feed itself, it has little to sell to earn foreign exchange, and even its leadership is dependent on handouts from Arab countries and other eccentric entities to sustain it. It would do anything to force Ethiopia to open up so as to gain economically. Hence the Eritrean leader’s obsession to destabilize his megalomaniac twin to the South!

 

Somalia in its current state of anarchy could use some help from Ethiopia and the latter may get access to the sea from which it locked-out itself in the first place. In the process of working toward that goal, Ethiopia is now an occupying power in Somalia. It is now a fair game for the Islamists and their sympathizers who have started insurgency in Somalia and terrorist attack against Ethiopia. As stated earlier, Sudan and Egypt would do anything to weaken Ethiopia so that they don’t suffer economically as a result of Ethiopia harnessing the waters of the Blue Nile.

 

National

Natural Resources

Access to the Sea

National wealth distribution

 

Ethiopia has natural resources which are currently exploited by the chosen few for their own benefit at the expense of the population of Ethiopia. There are fields of natural gases and oil for future developments; these are partly the cause of invasion of Somalia and genocide against the Anuaks. Ethiopia today is at the mercy of its neighbors by virtue of being landlocked. The conflicts with Eritrea and now the invasion of Somalia are the symptoms of a nation which is economically choking for lack of access to world markets.

 

WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE: As discussed above the problems Ethiopia faces have multiple causes which may or may not be related to each other. The major reason why the problems fester is because there is no National administration which is democratically accountable to the population. Power is acquired by force and maintained by force. Any dissenting voices are quickly and subtly/and not so subtly silenced. Only the support of a powerful foreign ally is needed to provide financial and material support to keep the dictator in power.

 

The Ethiopian opposition parties are as flawed in their approach to solving the nation’s problems as the current government! That explains why they have failed to come together to honestly discuss the way forward for their country in the last 30 years. If our house is burning, why is it so difficult for us to join hands in the effort to put the fire out – fire which has been burning for the last 30+ years? Here are some of the reasons:

 

We have no tolerance for the opinions of others if it differs from ours.

We are always right and those who hold different opinions are always wrong.

Compromise on issues on which we differ is anathema.

Talking to a political enemy is unthinkable.

We fail to appreciate our political enemies are just as Ethiopians as we are and that they have just as much stake in what happens to Ethiopia.

We fail to appreciate that being right does not necessarily win the support of others who may have different interest in the issues at hand.

We take pride in winning at the expense of our opponents and fail to see the effect of the failure on the latter.

We simply do not seem to know how to organize, how to utilize our resources and how to marshal outside support – as evidenced by our failure to move Meles an inch from his original position, even with the entire world sympathizing with the plight of the ordinary Ethiopians.

THERE IS THE EXPECTATION THAT EITHER GOD OR A POWERFUL OUTSIDER WILL COME TO PUT OUT THE FIRE WHICH IS BURNING DOWN OUR HOUSE AND THAT ALL WE HAVE TO DO IS STAND ON SIDE LINES AND POINT THE WORLD IN THE DIRECTION OF OUR BURNING HOUSE! IT IS SOMEONE ELSE’S FAULT THAT THE HOUSE WAS BURNT AND IT IS THE FAULT OF SOMEONE ELSE THAT THE FIRE WAS NOT PUT OUT!

WE ARE OFTEN AS UNDEMOCRATIC AS MELES HIMSELF!

 

Ethiopia failed to dislodge this dictator mainly because of the above-listed factors, and the dictator in Addis Ababa knows it, and is thriving because of that! But how come that Meles appears to win EVERY time and why does he appear INVINCIBLE? Here are some attributes which is worth our while to know:

Meles knows what he wants to accomplish.

He is confident in his abilities to achieve what he wants (e.g. leaves medical school to lead a guerrilla warfare against his government and ends up overthrowing the government and ruling Ethiopia for 16 years without conceding anything to his opponents.)

He would do whatever it takes to achieve his goals.

He takes calculated risks!

He acts (i.e. takes initiative), his opponents always react to him.

He is 100% committed to what he believes in.

He is 100% committed to beating the hell out of his opponents.

He knows his enemy well and uses that knowledge to his advantage.

He believes his opponents have no guts, and that gives him more confidence!

He knows his opponents hate each other so much that they couldn’t possibly be a threat to him, and up to this point he is RIGHT!

His Achilles heel is overconfidence in himself and his invincibility. HE WILL BE HISTORY IN NO TIME IF ETHIOPIA MAKES AN EFFORT TO LEARN THESE FACTS AND PUT THEM TO USE FOR THE COUNTRY’S OWN BENEFIT.

While the above attributes have sustained him for all this time it only needs an opposing team who appreciate these aspects of Meles and confront him INTELLIGENTLY, for the sake of Ethiopia. Today, after smashing the Somali Jihadists and scuttling the opposition, he sits comfortably in the driver’s seat in Addis Ababa, but that should not discourage his opponents. The way forward to a DEMOCRATIC ETHIOPIA MUST INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING:

 

Peaceful transition from the dictatorial rule of Ethiopia

Establishment of an Administration of National Unity

Draft/Amend the People’s Constitution

Referendum on the Constitution

National elections under international supervision

 

WHAT CAN WE DO: While they condemn the regime in Ethiopia, its foreign supporters and their opposition counterparts for the state of affairs in Ethiopia, I have yet to see the opposition parties, civic leaders or scholars come forward and accept any responsibility for the sorry state of Ethiopia! For every accusation we make, there can be a counteraccusation. If you accuse someone of burning down your house, that someone can turn around and accuse you for either provoking him/her to do it or for not preventing him/her from burning down the house. So, if Meles is accused of misruling in Ethiopia, Ethiopians must accept the counteraccusation of letting him misrule Ethiopia! One little man came out of the woods with his rag-tag army, took power by force, dismembered the nation of Ethiopia by giving independence to Eritrea without the consent of Ethiopian people, devised a system of divide and rule against the population of Ethiopia, robbed the nation of its vote, incarcerated its leaders, killed innocent people who were asking for the restoration of their vote, and now invaded Somalia under the pretext of fighting radical Islamic terrorists, while all the time a population of 80+ million people stood by and watched!

 

The only way we can help get Ethiopia out of the current mess is by accepting our share of the responsibility for the state of affairs. Only by accepting our responsibilities can we set matters right – OUR ACCEPTANCE OF THE RESPONSIBILITY OF WHAT IS HAPPENING IN ETHIOPIA IS PART AND PARCEL OF THE SOLUTION TO THE PROBLEM THERE! Failure to accept the responsibility means the solution is to be found somewhere else and that explains why dictators have ruled Ethiopia comfortably for the last 30+ years – because people have shirked their responsibilities. As I pointed out, there are many things that are wrong in the way we do things – it is part of being Ethiopian, and we must CHANGE the way we deal with each other to get a meaningful result for Ethiopia. We must commit ourselves, individually, to accept the responsibility for what is wrong in Ethiopia, which means we must accept we were wrong (in whatever we did or did not do to get to this position. Ignorance or inaction cannot be a defense and you better discard them) and each of us must try to do things right so that our effort will help build a better country for EVERY ETHIOPIAN and not hurt any ETHIOPIAN or Ethiopia’s neighbors. Only by doing the right things, even toward an enemy, shall we expect others to do the right things for us. Only then can there be peace in Ethiopia and eventually in the Horn of Africa. Here is what I consider to be the criteria of a firm personal commitment to the freedom for Ethiopia from the current regime and establishment of true democracy:

 

- Acceptance of our share of the responsibility for the problems in Ethiopia – you must put aside the role others have played (including Meles) to contribute to the current situation. (If you did not know what was going on in Ethiopia you must take 100% responsibility for your ignorance. If you were not there when misrule was being perpetrated against Ethiopia, you must take 100% responsibility for not being there to prevent the misrule.) Resist the temptation of pointing the accusing finger at someone else! Remember – for every finger you point at someone else, three of your own fingers are pointing at you!

- 100% acceptance of the responsibility to correct everything that is wrong in Ethiopia.

- Working with all those who have accepted their responsibility to rectify the problem in Ethiopia.

- Respecting the views of others which are different from yours and take the responsibility to respectfully explaining your position while objectively listening and understanding the other point of view. DO NOT TAKE DISAGREEMENTS PERSONALLY - IN OTHER WORDS, DO NOT MAKE ENEMIES, KEEP THE DOOR OPEN! Maintain friendship and civility even when you have serious politically different opinions.

- Making compromises for the sake of Ethiopia but not compromise at the cost of hurting the cause of Ethiopia.

- Avoidance of negative comments and postures toward those organizations who are seeking secession. On the contrary maintain positive communication channel and persuade them to see the benefit of staying within Ethiopia and how everybody’s rights will be safeguarded by the People’s Constitution.

- Commitment to finding a genuine solution by working with the current regime.

- Commitment to safeguarding the rights of those in power today when the time comes for them to go.

- COMPLETE REJECTION OF FAILURE IN THE EFFORT TO FREE ETHIOPIA!
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