Dr Yonas Biru

Malcolm Gladwell, the author of the critically acclaimed book “The Tipping Point” defines the title of his book as “that magic moment when an idea, trend, or social behavior crosses a threshold, tips, and spreads like wildfire." The phenomenon is also known as a critical mass or a percolation point.

According to Gladwell, three phenomena determine the tipping point for a product, idea, or social phenomenon such as a protest uprising: The right people, the right time, and the right environment. He refers to them as “law of the few, the stickiness factor, and the power of context.”

Timing (the stickiness factor) and environment (the power of context) need no explanation. Let us look at what Gladwell meant by the right people (law of the few). There are three kinds of people who fit his description: mavens (influencers with an established repute), connectors (networkers) and salesmen (PR people with skills of persuasion).

From the Fanno uprising perspective two of the three factors are met. The timing and the environment are ripe for a tipping point. What is missing is the right leadership architecture.

It was to fill this gap that I prepared “The Fanno Manifesto” on August 14. Two weeks later, I prepared a follow up document for AEPAC titled “The Amhara-Oromo-Tigray Conflict Nexus in Ethiopia: Challenges, Opportunities and a Way Forward.”

The purpose of the two documents was to fill three critical gaps in the Fanno uprising to:

Establish a Leadership Architecture: Present Fanno as a stabilizing force with a unified agenda, along with a robust strategy, adoptable roadmap, a reasonable end goal and a dynamic leader.

Throw Fanno’s Net Wider: Forge consensus not only within the Amhara tribal land but also with local stakeholders in all tribal homelands.

Build a Robust PR Ecosystem: Engage local and international actors to address their concerns, earn their confidence and win their support.

The proposal emphasized that filling these gaps are critical to: (a) avoid conflict within the various independent Fanno brigades and their support ecosystem at home and abroad, and (b) organize a broad support group and develop a robust strategy and effective campaign to bring other tribal lands on the Fanno bandwagon and influence international policies.

At first, the reaction from some of the Amhara diaspora intellectual class was negative. Soon enough the salient points I raised on the above-noted documents grew on them. Similar views have started to emerge from the diaspora Amhara community.

One example is a document titled “The Diaspora Unity” - coauthored by Professor Demissie Alemayehu, Dr. Brehanemesqel Nega, Professor Alemante Gebre-Selassie, Major Ayalesew Dessie, Deacon Habtamu Ayalew (ምላስ), Artist Abebe Belew, Dr. Gebeyehu Ejigu, and Artist Shimelis Abera (ጆሮ).

This is a step in the right direction. Here are the highlights of their document.

በዚህ የዐማራው ፈጣንና አኩሪ የትግል ግስጋሴ ውስጥ አንዳንድ፣ በተለይም በዳያስፖራው አካባቢ፣ የቅንጅት ክፍተትና አላስፈላጊ የፉክክር ስሜቶች ከቅርብ ጊዜ ወዲህ ይታያሉ። እነዚህ ተደራራቢ ድርጅቶችን የመመሥረትም ሆነ በአንዳንድ ወገኖችም በኩል አላስፈላጊና ወቅታዊ ባልሆኑ ተግባራት ላይ ማተኮሩ የዐማራው ትግል በአጠቃላይ የደረሰበትን ወሣኝ ምዕራፍ የሚያመለክቱ ሊሆኑ ቢችሉም፣ በአስቸኳይና በአግባቡ መሥመር ካልያዙ በዳያስፖራው ዘርፈ ብዙ የድጋፍ አቅምና ተሣትፎ፣ ከዚያም አልፎ በመሬት ላይ በሚደረገው ትግል ላይ አሉታዊ ተፅዕኖ ሊያሣድሩ ይችላሉ።

የዲፕሎማሲና አድቮከሲ ሥራ የዐማራውን ጥያቄ ለማሳካት መደረግ ከሚገባቸው እንቅስቃሴዎች መካከል ከፍ ያለ ትኩረት የሚሰጠው ቢሆንም፣ እስካሁን በተቀነባበረ ሁኔታ ሥራው ባለመካሄዱ፣ የተገኘው ውጤት በቂ አይደለምና፣ የሚፈለገው ደረጃ ላይ ለመድረስ የተጠናከረ ቀጣይ ሥራ መስራትን ይጠይቃል። ስለዚህ፣ የዲያስፓራው በቅንጅትና በትብብር መንቀሳቀስ ሊያስገኝ ከሚችላቸው ጥቅሞች አንዱ ይህን የዲፕሎማሲና አድቮከሲ ክፍተት በተቀላጠፈ ሁኔታ በአስችኳይ መድፈን ይሆናል።በመጨረሻም፣ ምንም እንኳን የፋኖ ትግል እስካሁን ያፈራቸው ውጤቶች በጣም አመርቂና ከተጠበቀው በላይ ሆነው ቢገኙም፣ ከትግሉ ድል ባሻገር የዐማራው ሕዝብ ለሚያጋጥመው እጣ-ፋንታ፣ የፖለቲካ ፕሮግራምና ፍኖተ-ካርታ መንደፍ ዋና አስፈላጊ ጉዳይ ነው። ይህንን በተመለከተ በርካታ ውይይቶቶች የተካሄዱና አንዳንድ በተናጠል የተዘጋጁ ሰነዶችም እንዳሉ የማይዘነጋ ቢሆንም፣ በአገር ውስጥም ሆነ በውጭ ያሉትን የተለያዩ አካላት ፍላጎቶች በአጥጋቢነት ያንፀባረቀ፣ በሁሉም ወገን ተቀባይነት ያለው ሥራ ተከናውኗል ለማለት አያስደፍርም። ይህን በተሳካ ሁኔታ ለመተግበር በአንድነት የተሰባሰበ የዳያስፖራ ኃይልና መድረክ አስተማማኝ አስተዋፅዖ ሊያበረክት ይችላል ተብሎ ይታመናል።  በእርግጥም፣ ከድርጊቶቹ አንዳንዶቹ በቅን ልቦና ወገንን ለመርዳት ከማሰብ የመነጩ  ሊሆኑ ቢችሉም፣ በትግሉ ላይ ሊያስከትሉት ከሚችሉት አሉታዊ ተፅዕኖ አኳያ ሲነፃፀር፣ አስጊና በተግባሩ የተሰማሩትን ወገኖችንም በኃላፊነት የሚያስጠይቁ መሆናቸውን መገንዘብ ይገባል።

Their call for unity, even though a bit tardy, is critical to facilitate the formation of a robust leadership architecture. If successful, a leadership architecture with the right people will fill a critical gap in the Fanno movement without which the risk of a civil war will increase.

Abiy is Gearing up for a Civil War

The danger with the current situation is that a tipping point can happen before a national leadership architecture is formed. This is how it is likely to happen. As Fanno gains more grounds in cities large and small, and as the boy king continues to block Amhara people from entering Addis Ababa, the Amhara militia and special force who are part of the Amhara government defense structure will shift their allegiance to Fanno. That will be a point of percolation and a threshold for a critical mass.

The boy king is preparing for this eventuality.  People routinely provide Koki Abesolome up-to-date information from different parts of Ethiopia. One person DMed her the following:

“ለምን እንደሆነ አይታወቅም አብይ ሽማግሌዎችን ሳይቀር እያፈሰ ዉትድርና እያሰለጠነ ነው። አንድ አንዴ ለማመንም ይከብዳል ተይዘው ወደስልጠና የሚላኩ ሰዎች እድሜ እና ስራ ሲታይ። የሩቅ ዘመዴ በቅርቡ አልፋ የባልዋ ወንድም ቀብሯ ላይ አልነበረም::  የት ገባ ብዬ ስጠይቅ ታፍሶ ለስልጠና ናዝሬት አካባቢ ተወስዷል አሉኝ። እድሜው ከ55 በላይ ይሆነዋል እኮ በዚህ ላይ ገበሬ ነው!

ታጣቂ እና ኮር አባል የሚባሉ አዛዉንቶች አሉ ቀበሌ አካባቢ የማይጠፉ እነሱን ሁሉ ነው ዉትድርና እያስገባ ያለው። የሚገርመው ከአርሲ እና ባሌ አካባቢ ዋናው ፖለቲካ የሀይማኖት ነው! እሱም ኦሮሞ የሚባሉት ሙስሊሞቹ ብቻ ሲሆን ሌላው ሁሉም መጤ ነው ሚባለው ክርሲቲያን ኦሮሞንም ጨምሮ (የጎበና ልጆች ነው ሚሏቸው)። መከላከያ እጅግ እንደተመታ ግልጽ ነው ግን እሱን ይተኩለኛል ብሎ ይሁን ወይም ሌላ እቅድ ይኑራቸው አይታወቀም ሽማግሌ እያሰለጠኑ ነው አርሲ አርባጉጉ አካባቢ። የሀይማኖት ግጭትም ሊያስነሱ የሚችሉበት እድል አለ!”

Koki has confirmed this from two other sources. Her sources seem to be credible and the story is consistent with the behavior of the boy king. Remember he is socially psychopathic and politically sociopathic.

A psychopath may suffer from emotional deficits, a lack of remorse and shame, but in most cases, he is controlled, manipulative and charming.  It suits him well in a social environment. In contrast, a sociopath manifests traits of impulsivity and violence. He is easily rattled and prone to anxiety and unable to control his rage. He becomes dangerous as the walls around him close in and begin to collapse. Friends of mine and foes of mine alike, this is where we are. Do not underestimate his psychopathic and sociopathic traits.

What Needs to be Done

I have written enough over the last two years on what needs to be done. First and foremost, the Amhara intellectuals at home and in the diaspora need to be liberated from their hermitized mindset. There is some inkling of a muted hope that this is slowly happening. The above noted call for the Diaspora Unity by the Habtamu Ayalew’s (ምላስ) and Shimelis Abera’s (ጆሮ) group inspires some level of confidence, albeit a somewhat tentative and constrained one.

Here are the Urgent Matters that Need to be Addressed Head-on

Rant if you must until your face turns purplish blue, but Eskinder and Major Dawit do not have what it takes to lead the Fanno movement. The Worst thing will happen if Major Dawit succeeds in his hijacking attempt. Say what you may and beat your heart out if you must, the Major Shene-Amhara. Ethiopia does not want to replace Shene-Oromo by Shene-Amhara. The Fanno movement is too complex and way too dynamic for the Esku-Dawi duo to comprehend, much less to lead.

For detailed presentation of what needs to be done please read “the Fanno Manifesto"; “The Amhara-Oromo-Tigray Conflict Nexus in Ethiopia: Challenges, Opportunities and a Way Forward”; and "Abiy Ahmed’s American Espionage Debacle and Its Implications for Fanno." They are a Google search away.

If you want a loose translation of the first two documents, read the above noted call for “The Diaspora Unity” by Habtamu Ayalew’s (ምላስ) and Shimelis Abera’s (ጆሮ) group. It is written in Amharic. The gist of their document mirrors the salient points of my “Fanno Manifesto” proposal and its sequel.

 
https://zehabesha.com/as-the-fano-uprising-nears-a-tipping-point-abiy-is-gearing-up-for-a-civil-war/