Yonas Biru, PhD

June 16, 2023

There are two governments in Ethiopia. First, there is Ethiopia run by a narcissist and paranoid Prime Minister. His indifference to the wellbeing of the people he rules and his lack of empathy for their suffering have allowed him to siphon off resources from critical government programs including poverty-targeted ones to finance a handful of his vanity projects. Because the personality architecture of a narcissist is built on a self-inflated scaffold, he lives in an alternative reality, flicking hard facts as inconvenient nuisances. This has denied him the ability to seize the moment when the opportunity for a corrective action arises.

The second government is Oromummaa, an anti-Ethiopia, anti-Christian and Anti-Islam Oromo terrorist cult, that bills itself as “the Master Ideology of the Oromo National Movement." The movement’s doctrine mimics the Nazification process in its propaganda, mobilization, and inhuman cruelty and is increasingly undercutting the Prime Minister’s government. Its leaders are Professor Asafa Jalata and Shimelis Abdissa. Since 2007, the University of Tennessee Knoxville website has served the movement as a depository venue for hate speeches and genocide inciting documents.

Though the two governments are working in parallel, they have areas of common interests as well as inherent conflicts. Their interests intersect within the Oromo political landscape in their pursuit to establish a tribal political powerbase. Their differences arise from their ultimate objectives. The Prime Minister’s grandiose yearning is to be the king of Ethiopia and the icon of Africa. In contrast, Oromummaa is an inward-looking and backward-sliding part cult and part political dogma, longing to take the nation back to the 16th century.

Despite the Prime Minister’s bravado and chest-beating, his powerbase and legitimacy are being increasingly eroded. He has been emitting signals to work with the Oromummaa leaders. He has gone as far as doing Oromummaa’s bidding in demolishing Churches and Mosques to win their support. Understandably, they do not see him as a trustworthy partner. He has betrayed Lemma Megersa who sacrificed his carrier to help him get the prime ministership. He has betrayed President Isayas who saved him from TPLF. Further, he has turned the gun on the people of Amhara and Fanno who stopped TPLF from advancing to Addis, vowing to kill or capture him.

Ethiopia is collapsing under the weight of the Prime Minister’s manic narcissism and Oromummaa’s genocidal mindset and inhuman cruelty. A frightening Genocide is brewing in slow motion. The Oromummaa hate that drives it is as evil as the energy behind the Rwanda genocide. The international community that promised “Never Again” after the Rwanda genocide has moral obligations to avert an existential threat to 120 million Ethiopians. The international community also has a geopolitical interest in maintaining Ethiopia’s stability as an anchor nation for the Horn of Africa - one of the world’s critical oil transit chokepoints that is vital to global energy security.

 

Mentally and Morally Unfit Prime Minister

Narcissism - The Prime Minister’s narcissism is manifested in his belief that he is Godlike - omnipotent (all-powerful); omniscient (all-knowing); and omnipresent (present everywhere). He has no reservation to announce that his mother has told him when he was at the young age of seven that he would be the King of Ethiopia who would lead the poor nation to greatness. He did not mince words to declare on a national TV that under his stewardship Ethiopia will be set to become “one of the two superpowers in the world by 2050." He believes his mother’s fantasy for her child as though it is biblical prophecy.

As a narcissist, he has an unquenchable craving for admiration and recognition. He uses compartmentalization as a coping mechanism to reconcile his imagined fantasies of grandiose success with the reality of his failure. Let me provide one example.

In December 2022, he raised hell when the international media reported that Ukraine was sending a shipload of wheat to feed starving Ethiopians. He went on TV to claim his government never asked for it and expressed anger, suggesting the international community was sending food and announcing it to the international media to undermine his success in achieving food security. He said, far from needing international food aid, Ethiopia was ready to export food.

In 2023, the US and UN stopped humanitarian aid to Ethiopia after discovering “massive government theft” of donated food that was meant to feed starving Ethiopians. Donated wheat was turned into flour and exported to Kenya and Somalia. The Prime Minister’s spokesperson publicly warned the US and UN, stressing their decision to withhold humanitarian food aid will subject millions of Ethiopians to starvation. This is coming from the very Prime Minister’s office that not even six months ago claimed that Ethiopia was producing surplus and exporting wheat.

The Paranoia – The Prime Minister’s paranoia has led him to see peaceful opposition parties as a threat to his omnipotence, omniscience, and omnipresence. In 2021, on national TV, he

accused his peaceful oppositions of conspiring to remove him by force and threatened them stating that they would see “the slaughter of hundreds of thousands of people over night.”

In 2023, he upped his threat, stating “Extremists who want to instigate conflict to remove him from office should know that the consequence more deadlier than the red terror in the 1970s.” According to the African Union, “more than 700,000 people were killed” during the red terror.

The Prime Minister’s disinterest about the welfare of the people and his lack of empathy have made it difficult for him to sympathize or empathize with the people’s suffering. Since he came to power, over a million people have died of war, starvation, mass murder, and over 5 million people have been forcefully displaced. Yet, his priority and focus are on building vanity parks and a pharaonic palace along with an opulent surrounding including three artificial lakes, a zoo, a waterfall and a real estate project of Dubai-grade luxury villas. His vanity is Ethiopia’s costly endeavor to the tune of $15.3 billion.

Responding to widespread criticism of his vanity projects, the Prime Minister dug his heels and pushed back, stating Ethiopia's poverty will not deter him from pursuing his vanity projects. He claimed the number of Americans on food aid and those who are homeless is equal to 50 percent of the population of Ethiopia (over 60 million). The message was that this did not stop the US from pursuing vanity projects such as going to Mars.

Obviously, this is a willful distortion. First, the number of homeless people in the US is 582,000. The number of Americans on food aid is 42 million that is less than the 60 million figure the Prime Minister used. More importantly, Americans on food aid are not destitute people.

Though they benefit from different government subsidies, a majority of them have cars, their own home, 70-inch TV, the latest iPhones, etc. For example, a family of four (husband, wife, and two children) with annual income of $36,084 to $55,512 qualify for food aid. A family of 8 (husband, wife and six children) with annual income from $60,624 to $93,264 will qualify for food aid because by American standards they are considered poor.

 

A Slow-Motion Economic Implosion

The cumulative impact of the civil war, misplaced priorities, and bad economic policies is a 25.9% drop in the nation’s GDP. As the Prime Minister go on a Dubai-inspired binge for flashy vanity projects with dancing fountains and parks imitating Peter the Great’s gardens, 22 million Ethiopians are in need of international food aid. Furthermore, more than 2.3 million children are out of school, as they wait for the reconstruction of schools destroyed by the war. To top it off, three million people have slipped below the absolute poverty line.

The Prime Minister’s obsession with vanity projects (including the $15.3 billion palace) that are financed by printing money is destroying the nation’s economy. In 2018, Ethiopia’s inflation rate was 13.8 percent. At the time, the average inflation for Sub Saharan African countries was 4.1 percent. In January 2022, Ethiopia’s inflation was amongst the worst 10 inflationary countries in the world. For 2023, IMF’s projection for Ethiopia is 31.4 percent. By 2024, the projection is 23.5 percent. The median inflation for Africa is projected to be 5 percent by the end of 2024.

Of primary concern is the 2023/2024 government budget deficit of 281.05 billion birr ($5.2 billion). The problem is attributable to several factors. One factor is a decline in tax-to-GDP ratio. Five years ago, the tax-to-GDP ratio was 0.11. In 2022/2023 fiscal year the figure was 0.07. The average for sub-Saharan African was 0.17.

Another factor is unprecedented corruption. Money that should go into the government’s coffer ends up in political officials’ private bank accounts. The 59% drop in gold export earnings is an example. A third factor is a precipitous drop in international aid after the international community lost confidence in the Prime Minister’s ability to govern.

Another area of concern is a steady decline in government capital expenditure (money spent on long term development projects such as roads and bridges). A Cepheus Capital report quoted by Ethiopia in Data shows, in the 2018/2019 fiscal year, government capital expenditure was 6.5% of GDP. In 2022/2023 it was down to 2.9%. Data from the Ethiopian Statistical Service show the same trend. There is no data for 2023/2024. However, given the significant decline in government budget in real terms (accounting for inflation), the figure is likely to be sharply lower than the 2022/2023 figure.

“Dropping sharply lower” seems to be the theme for every sector of the nation’s economy. Tourism is another case in point. The country lost $2 billion due to the war and Covid 19. The war has ended over six months ago, the Pandemic is in our rearview mirror, and the global tourism industry has recovered, Ethiopia has not been able to bounce back. This is primarily because of the breakdown of law and order in the country.

There is no better example of the obliviousness to reality of the Prime Minister than the tourism sector. He keeps building parks for tourists not paying heed to the fact that tourists do go to a country where law and order is in a Hobbesian state. In contrast, Kenya has been able to rebound its tourism sector in 2022. By February 2022, its tourism revenue surged 83% to $2.13 billion. Earnings are expected to increase further to $3.37 billion by the end of 2023.

Manufacturing is another sector in the “dropping sharply lower” column. According to Melaku Alebel, the Minister of Industry of Ethiopia, in 2022, 446 manufacturing industries stopped production. The problem is attributed to the shortage of finance, infrastructure, the absence of coordinated support from the government, and lack of skilled manpower.

Another problem area is foreign exchange (forex). The Prime Minister’s pet projects are given priority. Consequently, the nation’s manufacturing sector and other critical public projects are neglected and pushed into the black market, paying as much as 100 percent premium above and over the official exchange rate.

A Harvard study found the chronic forex shortage was harming manufacturing firms who need imported inputs. Recently, the Addis Ababa municipality had to accept bids that used black market exchange rate to buy 200 city buses from China, costing the city 100 percent more than the market value of each city bus.

Perhaps the most saddening item in the “dropping sharply lower” column is the poverty-targeted government expenditure line. According to the UNDP Quarterly Economic Profile, poverty targeted expenditure for 2022 was 2.9% of GDP, the lowest since 2017. Data from the Ethiopian Statistical services covering 2017/2018 to 2020/2021 show similar trend.

The only bright spot is the Ethiopian airlines, whose revenue of $5 billion was much higher than the revenue the country collects from exports of goods that amounts to $3.9 billion. Sadly, at the writing of this article the big news coming out of Ethiopia is the forced resignation of the chair of the Ethiopian Airlines Board, Girma Wake.

Times Aerospace reported the “shock departure” of a man “recognized as the father of the African aviation industry”, stating: “Wake has been credited with being the driver that put Ethiopian on the path to become the continents largest carrier and a group that competes with major airlines around the world.” The report noted “while supportive of governments' support for the airline business, he opposed government interference in the running of the airlines.”

The Prime Minister replaced such an aviation icon with a young air force General, who is an unknown quantity in Ethiopian, regional and international aviation circles. Though there are speculations, there is no definitive explanation for his forced resignation.

I believe the decision is driven by a desire to divert the Airlines’ US dollar and Euro based revenues to the Prime Minister’s palace project. I also find it hard to rule out the possibility that the reported export of stolen international food aid is partly linked to the government’s desperate need to supply forex to the Prime Minister’s vanity projects.

Ethiopia’s economy is sinking as the Prime Minister shifts resources from productive and poverty alleviation programs to his vanity projects. Even worse, his vanity projects are built outside of the Legislative Branche’s constitutionally sanctioned oversight authority.

The questions demanding answers are: Can the IMF and World Bank turn a blind eye? Would this not be a dereliction of their respective institution’s duty to undertake a regular health check of the economic and financial policies of member countries?

What we hear is about their obsession with floating exchange rate. The fundamental economic problems are elsewhere. Why are they quiet when the Prime Minister planed and implemented vanity projects outside of the constitutionally sanctioned oversight authority of the nation’s legislative body? Why should they provide heavily subsidized loans to such a despot as he wreaks havoc on the economy? Is this not a violation of their fiduciary obligations to international taxpayers who are financing international aid?

 

The Oromummaa Government

Literally, Oromummaa means being Oromo or Oromoness. Conventionally, it is a concept to embrace and cherish the Oromo culture. Sadly, the term has been adopted, abducted, and adulterated by morally malnourished and ethically devoid Oromo tribal intellectuals as “as the Master Ideology of the Oromo National Movement."

Professor Asafa Jalata, the Godfather of Oromummaa, acknowledges the movement has two dimensions: “(1) conventional Oromummaa developed from history, culture, and tradition, and

- national and global Oromummaa - as political and ideological projects.” OPride, one of the prominent Oromo newspaper, defines the term as “an Oromo political identity.”

Supporters of the movement get outraged when the inhuman cruelty of Oromummaa as a political ideology is exposed. Their desire is to hide their political aspirations behind the draperies of Oromo cultures and traditions. The fact is that the most common description of the term in the Oromummaa literature is “a national and global political project.”

What makes it dangerous is that it adds social and religious dimensions to the political core. As a result, “establishing political and religious leadership” is advocated as vital to the Oromummaa movement. This has led them to question the right of Christians and Muslims to practice their religion in the Oromo tribal land. For example, a study at the University of South Africa notes Professor Jalata, “is hesitant to affirm Islam as having any rightful place within Oromo identity” and condemns “the processes of the Christianization” of Oromos as a racist endeavor.

As a political and religious movement, Oromummaa embraces violence and works closely with the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA). The OLA is involved in mass murder and kidnapping of Ethiopian and foreigners for ransom. Oromummaa intellectuals “mobilize financial resources to support the OLA” and they were a part of the OLA delegation when the OLA and the Ethiopian government met in Tanzania for negotiation.

The Oromummaa movement’s primary targets are “the Ethiopian colonial state” and Churches and Mosques who are seen as “Colonial institutions” and “Empire Builders. Though Oromummaa claims to be an economic, political, and cultural movement, its focus is on religion. Specific accusations include:

- “Introducing the Habasha ruling ideas and religion”

- “Introducing an inferiority complex and self-hatred to Oromos”

- “Changing an original Oromo religion and taking Habasha and Arab names, religions, values, and norms”

- “Oromos stared to use borrowed religious identities and sub-identities.”

 

Pressuring the Oromo People to Abandon Isla Christianity and Islam

When one peels off the Oromummaa movement’s cultural façade and delve into its true intentions, it becomes clear the goal is to resurrect Waaqeffanna (an indigenous Oromo religion) as an official religion. According to the 2007 population census, Waaqeffanna is followed by only 3.3 percent of the Oromo population. In comparison, together Christians and Muslims account for 96 percent of the Oromo population.

Oromos who embrace and revere their Christian and/or Islam religion are under attack. This is how two Oromummaa publications both on the University of Tennessee website describes Christians and Muslim Oromos.

“Oromos, who like their Habasha masters have been the defenders of the Habasha culture, religion, and the Amharic language and haters of the Oromo history, culture, and institutions” and “They are totally estranged from the Oromo way of life and fascinated by the ideas and knowledge of their tormentors that convinced them of their inferiority”

Habesha is a term used to describe Ethiopians from the northern part of the nation. The President of the Oromo region is on the record referring to Amharas as “enemies.”

The Oromummaa campaign is not an intellectual exercise. It is a blueprint for religion cleansing actions. It is a seed for a genocidal campaign. In January 2023, the Voice of America reported the number of Amhara expelled from the Oromo tribal land was close to a million. The people are Christians and Muslims. Documenting the atrocity Christians were subjected to, Pope Francis asked his followers to pray “for persecuted Christians in Ethiopia.”

The Guardian reported “more than 200 Amhara people killed” by Oromo extremists. Most of them were Muslims. The Human Rights Watch also documented another round of mass killing, noting “heavily armed assailants shot and killed about 400 Amhara civilians, including many women and children.” The report quoted a grieving Muslim father:

“My 8-month-old child started crying. I heard an attacker say, ‘Look there, look there …’ before they shot in our direction. They shot my baby dead. I wrapped the dead body with some clothes I was wearing. My other child was shot in her back; the bullet came out around her neck … I then pressed my injured child against my chest, and I prayed to Allah to save her life.”

Over the last three months alone, the Oromo government has demolished over 200 Churches and Mosques. Two explanations were given by President Shimelis at a televised meeting with Christian and Muslim leaders. The first explanation is that the demolished houses of worship were built illegally. The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission has rejected this claim.
https://zehabesha.com/international-intervention-is-imperative-to-save-ethiopia-and-the-horn-of-africa/