Yonas Biru, PhD 

This  discussion  paper is prepared with inputs  from many  prominent individuals and  groups in Ethiopia and abroad. A preliminary survey in which 556 participants took part  shows 67.6% support the proposed international campaign. This discussion document  is shared with the public to foster discussion by all stakeholder at home and abroad. The  purpose is not to form a new organization. It is to encourage existing ones to form an  alliance and launch a well-coordinated campaign. There are encouraging signs.

“The people of Amaro are surrounded by Oromo on three directions. We are denied access to other regions. It is hard to explain our suffering in words. We are invaded and butchered, and our existence as an ethnic group is in peril.” Zemene A Zemene Hailu, 11th Regular Session of the Parliament, March 2023

“The people of Amaro are surrounded by Oromo on three directions. We are denied access to other regions. It is hard to explain our suffering in words. We are invaded and butchered, and our existence as an ethnic group is in peril.” Zemene A Zemene Hailu, 11th Regular Session of the Parliament, March 2023

“Some Oromo fools may not understand the strategy behind building Sheger City encircling Finfinnee. Our enemies understand our intentions.” Shimelis Abdissa, President Oromo Region, Speech for Oromo Youth, 2023

“Anti-government extremists who want to overthrow the federal government will see the slaughter of hundreds of thousands of people overnight.” PM Abiy Ahmed, Televised Speech, 2021

“Extremists who want to instigate conflict to overthrow the government should know that the consequence will be many times bloodier than the red terror in the 1970s.” PM D PM Abiy Ahmed, Televised Speech, 2023

“Today’s Ethiopia is at a juncture similar to that of Rwanda when it found itself at the dawn of genocide.” Addisu Arega, Head of PP International Relations, Facebook 2023

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

“What does Oromo-PP want?” The question is critical because the answer will take us to the  source of the spiraling crisis. In his 76-page recent manifesto, Jawar Mohammed, a prominent  Oromo activist, attributed the problem to Oromo-PP’s desire to impose the Oromo identity  and culture on other regions.

Since its  formation, the Oromo Prosperity  Party  (Oromo-PP) has  gone  through  subtle  but  intense infighting between extremist and moderate factions. Over the last year-and-half, the  extremist faction that is driven by the Oromummaa doctrine has increasingly controlled the  levers of power and  the PM has progressively become a part of it. Oromummaa is in equal  measure part cult and part political dogma. Its adherents uphold it above religion and family.  Its leaders have publicly declared their Oromo identity takes precedence over their religion.

Oromummaa’s  objective is more  than  creating  a  hegemonic  Oromo  rule  over  the  nation’s  economic and political spheres. It also involves creating a hegemonic cultural superiority. Its  implementation tool is Mogassa – an Oromo tradition of subjugation by brutal force.

The President of the Oromo region, Shimelis Abdisa, did not mince words when announcing that Oromo-PP’s plan for “the Future of Ethiopia” is Gedaa – a 16th century traditional Oromo  governance system.  Shimelis asserted  that “The Prosperity Party is built in such a way  to  advance  the  interest  of  Oromo” and  that  his  government  is  “spending  billions  erecting  Oromummaa markers in Addis Ababa,” a city where only 19% of the population is Oromo. .”

In its blind pursuit of hegemonic Oromummaa, the government does not tolerate any protest – political or otherwise. On February 15, security forces killed six and injured more than 15  people in Gurage zone to crackdown protest against chronic lack of water. Gurage members  of  the  PP  and  peaceful  Gurage  opposition  leaders,  who  advocate  for  an  autonomous  administration, have become targets of government security forces.

The Honorable Hassan Sheikh’s complaint at the Regular Session of the Parliament on March  28,  2023,  reflects  the  sentiment  felt  by  all  non-Oromo  ethic  groups  large  and  small. His  impassioned appeal expressed fear that the survival of his ethnic group (አማሮ) is in danger.

“የአማሮ ህዝብ በሶስት በኩል በኦሮሞ የተከበበ በሞሆኑ ከሌሎች አጎራባች ብሄሮች ጋር እንዳይገናኝ መንገድ ተዘግቶበታል::  ለመግለጽ በሚያዳግት እና ይህ ነው በማይባል አፈና እና በመከራ ውስጥ ይገኛል:: ከመወረርና ከመጨፍጨፉም አልፎ እንደ አንድ ብሄር ህልውናው አደጋ ላይ ነው:: …”

Although  the  conflicts  are  more  escalated  in  some  regions  than  in  others,  the  crisis  is  nationwide. However, the PM and Oromo-PP are recklessly creating a dangerous narrative  to target the Amhara as a political distraction. It is an open secret that President Shimelis’  reference  to  “our enemies” is Amhara. The recent invitation and warm reception of TPLF  leaders by  President  Shimelis  and  his  high-level  officials is  a  reckless  red  flag to  use the  Amhara-Tigray border conflict as a carrot and stick bait in the Oromo PP’s political calculus.  It is hard to imagine this was done without the knowledge and approval of the PM.

As part of the new Oromo-Tigray flirting, the TPLF is gearing up to use the current crisis as  an opportune time to recapture the contested lands. The Oromo-PP and TPLF fondling will  lead  to  an  Amhara-Eritrea  alliance.  That  will  be  a  dangerous  development. The  Voice  of  America is right in noting “more civil war is spreading in the country.”

It is important to remember that before the government-led genocide, Rwanda’s population  was less  than 8 million. Ethiopia’s population is more  than  the  four most recent genocide  countries combined (Rwanda, Bosnia, Sudan, and Myanmar).

The crisis is one spark away from plunging the nation and the Horn of Africa into catastrophe  of biblical proportions. The PM is upping the crisis by instructing Amhara special forces and  militia to disarm. Though the policy is supposed to be for all regions, the focus is on Amhara followed by Somali region.

According to the Pretoria agreement that was signed on November 3, 2022, the TPLF was  supposed to disarm. More than four months later, it has not complied with the agreement  and the federal government has not taken any action against it. In comparison, within a week  after  the  government  instructed  the  Amhara  to  disarm,  Federal  forces  are  surrounding Amhara garrisons to disarm them. Two members of the Amhara special forces were killed during a standoff.

The disarmament decision is necessary for lasting peace if it is planned and undertaken in a  transparent  manner  with  verification  and  trust  inspiring  process  in  place.  Amhara  has  legitimate reason to question its timing and purpose. During the Orthodox Church conflict,  the PM summoned elders to his office and told them the conflict was the work of extremist  Amhara  to  overthrow  his  government.  This is  the  same  PM who  threatened  to  slaughter  hundreds  of  people  overnight if  they  are  threats  to  his government.  The Amhara are  the  people the President of the Oromo region often refers as “NefeTegna” and “our enemies.”

Amhara must reject the demand to disarm until its concerns are  fully addressed. Civilians  must peacefully protect  the special  forces garrisons with sit-in protest taking  turns. If  the  Oromo-PP led government declares war, the Amhara must protect itself. Protecting oneself  when one is in possession of arms is better than fighting after surrendering its arms.

The international community (IC) must weigh in with a sense of urgency and resolve. Apart  from the threat of human catastrophe of biblical proportions, the IC cannot be oblivious to  the impending danger to global trade and security. More than 10 percent of global trade and  40 %  of Asia’s  trade with  Europe pass  through  the Red Sea. Since  Ethiopia is  the anchor  nation for the region’s stability, as Ethiopia goes so goes the Horn of Africa region.

Our  national  and  international  campaign  follows  a  three-pronged  strategy.  The  first  and  most important task is building a broad coalition to avert the impending crisis. The analogy  we  use  is  safely  landing  the  proverbial  plane  with  a  malfunctioning  engine  that  is  flying  through turbulence air. We believe saving the plane from breaking up in midair and safely  landing the damaged plane must be our priority.

Second, we advocate for change and accountability within the constitutional order. Of recent,  we  have  witnessed  growing  dissatisfaction  within  the  PP.  A  significant  number  of  PP  members did not attend the PM’s recent briefings. When the Parliament met to remove the  terrorist designation on TPLF, the meeting barely met quorum, and over 60 of them voted  against the measure. Majority members of Gurage-PP who voted in  favor of autonomy  for  Gurage are not happy campers with the PM and Oromo-PP. The threat Oromo-PP poses that  the representative of Amaro zone articulated above is a threat felt by all ethnic groups.

The  campaign must  focus  on mobilizing  and  supporting members  of  PP  to  challenge  the  Oromo-PP. Lumping  all  regional  PPs with Oromo-PP is wrong.  For  example, many in  the  Amhara  region  are  anti  Amhara-PP  and call  for  their  abolishment.  This  is  not  only  self defeating, but also dangerous, when there is no other viable Amhara organization. A weak  Amhara organization is better than no Amhara organization.

What needs to be done is working with the rank-and-file members and creating pressure on  the leadership to push back against Oromo-PP. In the meantime, the population of Amhara  must  mobilize  a  campaign  to  recall  Amhara-PP  leaders  and  replace  them  with  representatives who will defend Amhara’s interest more aggressively. Similar effort must be  made  to  recall  complicit  PP  representatives  of Addis Ababa. The  situation is  favorable  to create a critical mass within PP to challenge the PM and Oromo-PP. This is the most viable  option in the short term without risking the disintegration of Ethiopia.

Third, a strategic international campaign is needed, with three specific action points.

• Mobilizing international  pressure  against  Ethiopian military  and  police  leaders not to follow order from the PM to engage in any atrocity against the people.

• Launching international  investigations,  expanding  the  mandate  of  the  UN  investigation to include atrocities committed in Oromia and Addis Ababa.

• Imposing international  sanctions with  exemption  to  humanitarian  aid  and  programs such as AGOA that directly benefits the poor.

Concurrently, as part of the international sanction, the campaign will mobilize the diaspora  not to send remittance through official channels and avoid visiting Ethiopia except for family  emergency. Remittance is more  than what Ethiopia gets from  the IC, including  the World  Bank and IMF. The diaspora has the means to influence policy and it must act decisively.

Remember  that  external  pressure  was  one  of  the  factors  that  forced  TPLF  to  peacefully  relinquish power in 2018. Once TPLF lost its ability to keep the country stable, the IC turned  against it. Today, the IC has come to the realization that the PM is a destabilizing leader and  dangerous for the Horn of Africa. The campaign will capitalize on this.

In sum, our campaign is peaceful and all-inclusive. Its aim is to avert the spiraling crisis that  is tearing the country apart. Our win-win strategy is focused on pressuring the government  to change course. In this regard, we demand critical steps of accountability that the PM must  take. Should he refuse to do so,  there is a  trigger point  that will escalate  the campaign  to  peacefully remove him from office, following the constitutional process.

 

I. SPIRILING POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC CRISES  

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his Oromo-PP party came to power in 2018 on the heels of a  national upheaval that was borne out of political and economic crises. Once again, in 2023,  Ethiopia is confronted with similar circumstances  that can potentially lead  the nation  to a  national upheaval with far more calamitous consequences of a civil war.

We must ask: Why did Jawar Mohammed, in his 76-page recent manifesto say: “All Oromo’s  must  be  ashamed  of  Oromo-PP’s  leadership.”  What  made  him  lament  that  people  are  “wondering if Oromo can govern the country?” His statements are driven by the state of the  nation’s security, economic and political rapid deterioration.

Numbers  do  not  lie.  And  this  is  what  they  are  showing.  In  2018,  there  were  1.6  million  internally displaced people. In 2021, “Ethiopia set a world record for displacements in a single  year: 5.1 million. In 2023, there are 4.6 million Ethiopians displaced.

In 2018, there were 30,000 political prisoners. Today, the number is much higher. Further,  under Prime Minister Abiy, Ethiopia has become “one of the worst jailers of journalists in sub Saharan  Africa.”  Journalists  and  activists  are  routinely  abducted  in  a  broad  daylight,  blindfolded, taken to the Oromo region, and tortured in private prisons. There are also cases  of arbitrary arrests of journalists and prominent activists.

To top it off, opposition parties are prevented from holding annual meetings as required by  the laws of the National Election Board (NEB). Rogue Oromo officials routinely threaten hotel  owners  not  to  rent meeting  halls  to  opposition  parties. On March  15,  2023,  the  Ethiopian  National  Election Board issued a  press  release,  noting  “illegal  detention, intimidation, and  harassment  of  members  and  leaders  of  political  parties.” The  Board  further  expressed  concern that opposition parties are denied the right to hold general meetings.

The situation is equally grim on the economic front. In 2018, Ethiopia’s inflation rate was 13.8  percent. At the time, the average inflation for Sub Saharan African countries was 4.1 percent.  Under  Prime  Minister  Abiy,  in  2021,  inflation  in  Ethiopia  skyrocketed  to  26.4 percent.  In  January  2022, Ethiopia’s inflation  was  amongst  the  worst  10 inflationary  countries in  the  world. For 2023, IMF’s projection for Ethiopia is 28.6 percent. The corresponding figure for  African countries is between 3 and 6 percent.

The  IMF  attributes  Ethiopia’s  high  inflation  to  “loose  fiscal  policy.” This  means  the  government is borrowing and spending beyond its means. Over the last six months alone the Government borrowed 100 billion Birr from the national Bank of Ethiopia. Other attributable  factors  include  the  war,  the  government’s  exchange  rate  deflation  policy  and  Oromo-PP  imposed restrictions on movements of people, goods, and services across state lines.

Since Prime Minister Abiy and his Oromo-PP party  took office, Ethiopia’s cereal and other  food imports have increased from 1.16 billion dollars in 2018/2019 to 3.61 billion dollars in  2021/2022, representing a 312% jump. During the same period, Ethiopia’s international food  aid has skyrocketed from $142.5 million to $1.17 billion, registering 821% jump.

In 2018, there were 7.88 million Ethiopians in need of international food assistance. Under  Prime  Minister  Abiy,  20.4  million  people  need  international  food  assistance.  In  2023,  the  Prime Minister chose to export wheat, deepening the nation’s food crisis. The consequence is  a very high food inflation rate of 33.6% that is 17% higher than the general inflation rate.

The latest economic news (April 8, 2023) is “Ethiopian coffee exporters have defaulted on  394 coffee export contracts since October 2022.” The Reporter noted: “The exporters say they  have no choice but to breech their contract because the international coffee price has dropped  below the local price in Ethiopia, slashing the profit margin they had anticipated.” One of the  consequences of a sky-high inflation is losing competitive edge in export markets.

Yet another bad headline reads: “The Ethiopian Meat Producers and Exporters Association  stopped  exporting  meat  as  of  06  April  2023.” The  Association  attributed  the  problem  to  foreign  currency  embezzlement.  Registered  meat  producers  and  exporters  are  sidelined,  while fly-by-night illegal Oromo slaughterhouses are given access to foreign exchange.

The  economy  is  under  stress  on  many  fronts.  According  to  the  Heritage  Foundation,  “Ethiopia’s economic freedom score is 48.3, making its economy the 155th freest in the 2023  Index. Its score is 1.3 points lower than last year.”

Similarly, the Hong Kong-based Fitch Rating has consistently downgraded Ethiopia’s credit ratings on its ability to meet its financial obligations. Ethiopia rating history shows: November  2018  (B+) October  2019  (B),  June  2020  (CCC),  February  2021  (CCC)  and December  2022  (CCC-).

According  to  International  Transparency  (the  world’s  authoritative  body  on  corruption  index), in  2022, Ethiopia  scored  worse  than  the  previous  year. The  report  noted  that  the  country’s long-term trend was an improvement. In other words, Oromo-PP led government  is worse than TPLF when it comes to corruption. Even worse, corruption in 2022 was worse  than in  2021. The  2023  corruption index is  not available,  but all indications are it will  be  worse than 2022. Everything is going down.

II. THE PRIME MINISTER’S AND OROMO-PP’S FAILURE TO  GOVERN ETHIOPIA

There are at least two reasons why the Oromo-led government has utterly failed in just  five short years compared to the Tigrayan-led government that lasted for 27-years. The  first reason, which is also raised in Jawar Mohamed’s recent 67-page recent manifesto, is  that most of the Cabinet members and government officials are not appointed on merit:  knowledge, skills, experiences, and integrity. By and large,  the nation is led by political  cadres whose primary qualifications are complete loyalty and unconditional service to the  Prime Minister.

The second reason is an extremist Oromo narrow nationalism that demands allegiance to  Oromummaa (an Oromo cult) above everything else. We have heard Jawar Mohammed,  Shimelis Abdissa, and many other Oromo leaders stating that they are first Oromo before  they are Christians or Muslims. We have seen them take pride in their belief that they are  first Oromo, and second Ethiopian if and only if Ethiopia submits to their whims.

We  have  witnessed  one  of  the most  prominent  Oromo  political leaders,  Bekele  Gerba,  proposing  “not  to  do  business  with  anyone  who  does  not  speak  Afaan  Oromo”  and  attributing the decline of the Oromo language to interethnic marriage. We have also heard  Oromo activists calling for a mass divorce to free Oromos from their Amhara wives and  husbands.

In  many  ways,  members  of  the  extremist  Oromo  political  class  including  those  in  leadership positions operate as though they are Oromo before they are human. They see  everything from the tenets of religion to the sanctity of family relations through an ethnic  lens.

The political crisis and the unprecedented cruelty including stoning religious leaders to  death, hanging a defenseless person alive upside down and killing innocent children and  elders with machetes are results of the Oromummaa phenomenon.

III. THE INVASION OF OROMUMMAA & THE BREAKDOWN OF  LAW AND ORDER 

Where ethnicity  supersedes  humanity  as the  basis  for  social  order,  cruelty  becomes  the  norm.  This  is  what  we  are  seeing  in  current  Ethiopia.  Pregnant  and  nursing  woman  are  evicted with their children and their elderly and sick parents.
https://zehabesha.com/averting-civil-war-in-ethiopia-an-emergency-manifesto/