Jeff Pearce

Cast your mind back over what may feel like the longest year-and-a-half of your life (sure as hell feels that way to me). Back, back, way back just before this war began. Do you know what made the news about Ethiopia? Let me refresh your memory. Here’s The Guardian for—yep, check the date—November 2, 2020:

“Survivors of the massacre counted 54 bodies in a schoolyard in the village of Gawa Qanqa, which was targeted late on Sunday by suspected members of the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA). Most of the victims were women and children and elderly people, according to survivors who hid in nearby forests.”

Wollega. And where are we now? With a body count of—last time I checked—estimated at around 1,500 for that recent massacre. In Wollega. Again. And now reports are coming in today of new attacks by the OLF-Shene.

Much has changed since 2020, and yet when it comes down to it, the horrors visited upon innocent Amhara have not diminished. They have multiplied and grown even more terrifyingly gruesome and beyond bestial. Add to this that while the TPLF’s war has largely eclipsed their plight, the Amhara were nevertheless their constant and regular target for attack. Then the ethno-fascists slaughtered and looted their way through Afar, proving yet again—as if humanity needed another historical reminder—that if you can dehumanize one people, you can dehumanize anyone.

And what has the outside world learned? Absolutely. Nothing.

Nothing.

Because as examples of recent history amply demonstrate, the EU and U.S. see war as a constant in Africa, and it’s a case of Let’s just pick the side we like. If we keep the blood flowing, no one will notice how we pressure them for unequal deals for their natural resources, or how we keep millions of Black people bottled up on one continent, denying them travel visas or refugee status (for those who doubt the deliberate visa restrictions, I explore this issue in my new book, The Gifts of Africa).

“God help us if the poor bastards ever figure out how they’re sitting on the greatest storage of food and groceries in the world.”

And again, if you cast your mind back, the vast online TPLF troll army—before they gave up the masquerade—first tried to sell the world that there was an “anti-war” movement within the Tigrayan diaspora. Their ploy was that the war was foisted upon Tigray by the federal government, and the Western media lapped this up, never bothering to check what was said in English versus what was said in Tigrinya.

This nonsense died a hard death when the TPLF chose to not only try (and fail) to capture the main supply road from Djibouti but came about 200 miles away from Addis itself. You remember? Right before they got their asses kicked back to Mekelle.

It hardly says you “simply want regional autonomy” while you invade a good swath of the rest of the nation, vandalizing and looting hospitals, universities, and museums along the way.

For a long while, I have wondered… What if Ethiopia had a sincere peace movement? What would that look like?

I’ll come back to that in a while. This will be a long one, kids, so strap in. I need to jump to different points to bring it all together, but I promise I’m going somewhere with it. It will be controversial, but that’s the point; certain things need to be said and talked about.

About Abiy and His Government

Months before that 2020 massacre in Wollega, I counted so many massacres and episodes of ethnic violence that I was moved to write a Medium piece with the rallying cry (and a title with unfortunately shoddy grammar), “Ethiopia, Save Yourselves as One People.”

That was two whole years ago. And Ethiopians are still killing each other, with sinister forces at work encouraging the bloodshed.

I didn’t ever want to tell Ethiopians how to unite—how arrogant would that be! There is no lack of ferenji idiots, including ones booted out of the country, who insist on trying to tell Ethiopians what they should do, whether Ethiopians want their advice or not. And what’s particularly slimy—besides their shameless alliance with TPLF advocates—is that they do it in secret… and then lie about it when caught.

Despite how I’ve been depicted in mainstream media outfits from AFP to The Economist, trying to box me in as a “pro-government” commentator, I have never taken an official position on Abiy Ahmed’s administration. And I still won’t. Because my sympathy and loyalty are to Ethiopia, not to who’s sitting in parliament for this year or that year.

But in the current political climate, just repeating the call for people to unite amounts to an empty bromide about as useless as “Let’s all try to love each other.” When we say, “Unite,” we need to have a plan behind it.

I have seen Twitter posts from one-time allies and followers scathingly depict Abiy as the alleged mastermind behind Amhara massacres. And as I’m not there, and none of us has evidence beyond those sharing clips of public statements he made that they don’t like, I honestly don’t know what the hell to think.

My doubts over such allegations are personal and instinctive, and I will tell you a quick story for why I resist believing them.

In what feels like ages ago, I once discussed the idea of interviewing TPLF child soldiers on live television so that Western reporters could see the kids are uncoached and to finally get it through their thick skulls what evil they’re supporting. I talked about this with Nasise Challi Jira, then the ambassador to Canada and now Ethiopia’s Tourism Minister.

And without missing a beat, her first comment was about how to protect the kids’ identities, because at some point, they would want and need to go back to their communities where they could face the stigma of having fought for the TPLF. (And yes, I would have arranged for that anyway, if we had managed to get the segment to happen.)

Now understand: This was a private conversation. Ms. Nasise wasn’t “wearing” her compassion on display to score political points or saying this in some interview. She was talking to some Canadian schmuck, alone and unrecorded. And her first instinct was one of human decency and compassion for others.

The measure of our conscience is not how we behave in public, but whether we act on our ethics when no one is watching.

You may say, Okay, that’s one individual. Well, she is not the only official I have spoken with, either a diplomat or a minister, whom I believe is acting out of personal commitment to keep the nation together.

Does that mean everyone in the administration is? No. It is very clear that just as in the army, there are those within positions of influence at the federal and regional levels who are trying to sink Ethiopia’s democratic experiment. The accusations of complicity are stacking up from organizations such as the National Movement of Amhara and the Amhara Association of America, and there are damning accounts from Wollega itself.

As a diaspora ally put it to me, summing up the anger out there very well, “Killings of Amharas have been going on for a few years now, and the government is incapable of even acknowledging the reality. This is a case of complicity through inaction, at a minimum.”

What I do know personally for sure is that there is a genocide going on. For the love of gawd, I can show you Excel sheets prepared by others, naming victims of the massacres! The word, “genocide,” unfortunately, has been so misused and exploited by the TPLF that it has lost its proper weight and power to alarm.

What I do know as well is that I share the concern of others over mass arrests of Amhara and Ethiopian journalists, who are owed a better explanation than what they’ve been given so far.

More to the point, how about not arresting thousands of the people who so far have been the strongest supporters of a unified federal state?

And I ask: Why the hell didn’t the Speaker of the House in Ethiopia’s parliament do his job and allow for proper discussion on the Wollega massacre we are all grieving over right now?

Why didn’t the Prime Minister go to Wollega himself and meet victims’ families instead of planting trees?

And if you tell me, “Sorry, the area wasn’t secure enough for a visit,” I must point out, respectfully, how is that he went to the war front last year, but a PM of Oromo descent can’t visit a spot in Oromia? What message does that send to the greater population of the country?

These are questions. But I think they are reasonable questions. I have never met the man, and the closest I ever got to him was at a diaspora event in January at Menelik Palace in which I attended as a guest of honor and was invited to speak at the last minute. And afterwards I saw a strange and worrisome thing. One for which there are plenty of other witnesses.

As Abiy left the event, he shook hands with folks, and the crowd surged forward. It didn’t matter the age or gender, they all wanted to touch him, to speak to him, to bask in his close presence. The swarm grew so intense that members of his security detail were body-checking and shoving people back. For the briefest of instants, I had eye contact with the encircled PM, and I could only wonder what was going through his mind.

I rode with some #NoMore activists in a car to get a nightcap at their hotel afterwards, and we all traded notes on this alarming scene. For myself, I didn’t think any of this was Abiy’s fault: the guy is a politician, that’s what politicians do, they want to meet and greet. I’d ask Security what the hell happened. But that mob scene disturbed me profoundly because it revealed just how fragile Ethiopia’s young democracy is.

Because there shouldn’t be cultish hero worship like this. Respect? Of course. Admiration? Fine. But you have a parliament now. The way it’s supposed to work is that if Boris Johnson or Justin Trudeau screws up and goes too far beyond what’s tolerable, you can boot the guy out and government goes on.

No leader is indispensable or irreplaceable. For that matter, no political party is or should expect to be ensconced forever. You take your turn, and when people don’t want you anymore, you go. It is important—indeed vital—that the democratic institutions endure far longer than the individuals.

The problem right now is… What is the alternative to the Prosperity Party? To be fair, it brought the voices of once voiceless regions into parliament. The residents of Gambella, Somali regional state, Afar, and elsewhere were at last properly heard.

So if there needs to be an alternative, it better be one that is competent, because as much as a tsunami of love lifted Abiy to stardom and cheered when he won the Nobel Prize, the wave of backlash—at least among many diaspora—is close to its equal.

I have seen allies who are so furious with Abiy that they “like” posts by analyst-provocateur Cameron Hudson, Mr. “Former CIA” who, if he ever grows a brain, might get a job as a humidor for Rashid Abdi. Even candlelight vigils for the Wollega victims were politicized online. On July 5 two years ago, I wrote about the ethnic violence and lack of unity, “Your enemy is loving this.” And it’s still true.

What’s needed is to bring the light and turn down the heat. Less furtive ferenji scheming and power plays by outside governments and more ideas from people for nation building.

What’s needed is more active usage of the tools of democracy. And to my Ethiopian friends, I say, It’s your democracy. It took so long to get here, literally thousands of years in the making, and if you don’t like what’s going on, use its tools available to you.

Like Abiy? Don’t like Abiy? That’s for you to decide. Vote. Hit the streets to peacefully protest (emphasis on the “peaceful”), and if cops start beating the hell out of you the way the American ones regularly do against protesters, all I can suggest is that you come out in such numbers that they won’t have enough sticks, and your voices are heard across the continent.

There is no partisan “pro” or “anti” government position in this—it’s what democracy is supposed to look like. There is supposed to be a “Loyal Opposition,” one that supports the mechanisms and continuity of governance while holding the incumbent government accountable.

I know there are those out there who genuinely believe that democracy is not innate to certain cultures, especially African ones. I think that’s a notion that’s misguided at the very least and dangerously bigoted at most. Many traditional African cultures, particularly in West Africa, have had assemblies of advisors who could “fire” their kings when they saw fit and bonded them to set obligations.

It is true, however, that disruption, civil war, political upheaval can leave a country out of the “habit” of democratic practice, and Ethiopia has never even had a proper working democracy—until now. The questions of how… and just how far to go… for any opposition are being grappled with as well right in Britain and the U.S. at the same time. So this is not just an “African problem.”

Ethiopia needs that loyal opposition. But there must be more than chants, more than slogans. Your organizers must take clear, well-articulated positions that seek tangible action and require a government response, whether it be a change in policy, legislation, or hell, just the government stepping down and someone new taking over, if that’s what you want.

In other words, democracy in Ethiopia stays alive.

Because the alternative is armed revolution, and you had enough of that with the Derg and then the TPLF.

Ideas, Humbly Offered

These are ideas. Ideas are free. Take ’em, don’t take ’em. Use as you wish. Up to you.

Again, the huge difference between me and William “Fungus” Davison and his sleazy gang is that I neither have the tools, the platform, nor the desire to manipulate public opinion by planting bullshit stories with gullible Western editors, and unlike Fungus, I’m not a white guy who feels perfectly entitled to interfere in a Black nation’s politics, even after that nation kicked his ass out—twice.

I go where I’m invited, and I answer when asked. I was asked months ago by Ethiopian media about the constitution. I finally decided to get off the fence. And so now I feel the need to do it again.

1). Throw Out the Constitution and Start Again

I have enormous respect for the intelligence and political acumen of Attorney General Gedion Timothewos. But I must admit I am confused by his announcement of “fundamental principles” to negotiate with the TPLF for peace. You can easily find online the video in which he states one of those principles is “respect of the constitutional order and constitutionalism.”

What does that mean? Your guess is as good as mine. I would hope for more clarity and specifics, especially since Mr. Gedion is a former university professor and a well-respected constitutional scholar. If anyone has the answer, you’d think it would be him. Please, sir, tell us.

But at the same time, every Ethiopian—except those who want to tear the country apart—knows that the constitution is a cancer on the nation. For as long it remains a legal document, it will keep spreading its poison.

“For me, the root of all evil is the Ethiopian constitution,” declared Asfa-Wossen Asserate on a DW show, pointing out how Ethiopia was unique in having established an ethnic federation in the 1990s. “Ethiopia became the most racist country in the world. We’re the only place in Africa where in our identity cards, you have the word race written on it… The parties were ethnic, our borders were ethnic. And you know, we have seen in the world where you have ethnic borders, ethnic cleansing is not very far away.”

Why then does the Ethiopian government hesitate? I won’t indulge in conspiracy theories, but I can appreciate folks’ frustration. Delays and evasions only aid the very enemy that built this Frankenstein Monster that keeps shambling and destroying Ethiopian lives.

If I’m wrong, I would welcome the Attorney-General’s correction and clarification. But if he means by “constitutional order” that peace talks will follow in accordance with the current constitution, I’m wondering why?

Even if you come to a workable, long-term truce or some arrangement for regional autonomy for Tigray, you will still need to fix the Monster. There is no choice. If you think you can leave it be and ignore it, it will keep causing destruction. If you choose to tinker with it or create a new one after a negotiated settlement, the TPLF will opportunistically seize on your reform effort anyway and claim it as a pretext to start trouble all over again.

Everyone knows and loathes the idea that even having peace talks with the TPLF confers on them a political legitimacy that this band of psychopaths do not deserve (more on that in a moment). But if you must hold your nose and do it, why would you shackle yourself to the Monster that is their legal creation?

Why not act in the best interests of Ethiopians and free them of it, once and for all?

Ultimately, it’s not a constitution that should bind both parties in a subset deal—it should be a treaty special to itself, of value and limits only within the context of this historic situation. It’ll be a peace made with a government, not with a document.

As for that document, please, please get rid of the wretched thing. Slay the Monster, and free your citizens. Start fresh. Develop something in the spirit of the Ethiopian people and their interconnected, collaborative history.

2) King Solomon’s Judgment: Cut the Baby in Half

Let’s be clear. The TPLF are a terrorist group that cannot be trusted. I have seen their destruction myself and interviewed their victims. So have other reporters and respected analysts. The TPLF’s only goals are power and money, nothing else. It’s not the interests of the Tigrayan people, let alone Ethiopians of other ethnicities.

Entering peace talks with them is a sickening thought. I can easily believe that the Abiy government is taking this step only because of the relentless vindictive pressure by the U.S. and EU, and because the PM and his Ministers know Ethiopians are weary of war. They need peace.

But it can’t be peace at any price.

Let us assume—let us hope—that the rumors are not true, and that the government has no plan to bargain away Welkait through some ridiculous referendum. Abiy should know if he did this, not only would his name go down with those of other infamous appeasers in history such as Neville Chamberlain and Pierre Laval, but there would be open, angry revolt, and his government would fall.

Welkait is the red line that can’t be crossed. Jan Nyssen and his buddies can do their farcical “discovery” of European maps all they like, but Ethiopians don’t give a damn what Western advocates for TPLF have to say, nor do I, since I can point to the map made by the UK Stationary Office from the official British history of the 1941 Liberation. I’m still waiting for these advocates to talk their way out of that one.

Besides, the last word on Ethiopian geography belongs to Ethiopians, not any European.

The TPLF cannot have Welkait. Ever. Or Telemt or Humera or any other clod of Earth west of the Tekeze River. Besides the complete betrayal of the residents there, this would send a signal to the TPLF that they can demand and take more.

Appeasing evil never works. We are not dealing with reasonable people here. As Professor Ann Fitz-Gerald tweeted recently, “We are all desperate to see peace come to this wonderful country we all love. The challenge is that the TPLF leaders’ strategic interests/objectives—unlike the people’s objectives—are incompatible with a lasting peace. Negotiations only work if ‘big picture’ outlooks are similar.”

And they’re clearly not. Any peace talks with the TPLF simply can’t be with people under criminal investigation, those led a mission that slaughtered thousands.
https://zehabesha.com/another-way-forward-for-ethiopia-time-for-new-tactics-and-new-attitudes/