There is verifiable information that TPLF is losing the third round of war in Northern Ethiopia, which started on August 24, 2022. But who is in control of which area is not clear. However, what is becoming abundantly evident is that the Ethiopian Allied Forces of ENDF, Amhara Special forces, and Fano will emerge victorious. Therefore, now is the time that Ethiopians should ask what “Victory” means and whether it would be sustainable and result in lasting peace for all Ethiopians. While winning the third round of war is looking like a certainty, unless we do the hard work to secure peace, we may still find ourselves fighting another battle. This article explores and sparks discussions on what needs to be done to secure peace.

There are three distinct scenarios for the outcome of the war in Northern Ethiopia. These are:

- TPLF “Victory”

- Ethiopian Allied Forces Victory

- Peace Negotiation preceded by orderly disarmament and cessation of hostilities followed by a negotiated settlement of the handling of the TPLF officials and operatives

 

- The TPLF “Victory” Scenario:

Currently, TPLF has lost territories in North Wello that it invaded, whether through defeat or retreat. As of October 7, 2022, there are reports that Ethiopian Allied forces are controlling Shire Indaselassie. TPLF has been hit hard from at least half a dozen battle fronts. Gen Tadesse Worede’s and Gen Tsadkan G. Tinsae’s interviews indicate that TPLF was not prepared for that kind of response.

TPLF’s loss in the first two rounds also confirms that it does not have the ability to win a conventional war. Rather, TPLF’s strength is when it fights a guerrilla war. After losing the third round of war, TPLF might resort to guerilla warfare and hope to wage a war of attrition. Therefore, there is a possibility that TPLF might win in the distant future.

It is worth noting that when Ambassador Tibor Nagy asked Gen Tsadkan whether TPLF had any chance of winning, he said we will fight. Never did he say that TPLF would win. His utter disregard for the young fighters he sends to battle is saddening. Gen Tsadkan, in his response to New York Times interview in December 2021, said, “We were an easy target.” as drones struck its soldiers and convoys. How this so-called brilliant strategist expects he can force peace by attacking Amhara land while at the same time saying Amharas are not TPLF enemies is a mystery. The definition of ‘victory’ on the TPLFs side is often shady. It keeps on changing. Gen Tadesse mentions “Survival, Honor and Rightful Benefits”. Ethiopians interpret that as getting back to power since no one wants or is able to infringe on those “causes”. If TPLF’s end goal or ‘winning’ also implies getting back Welkait/Raya as Gen Tsadkan stated at his Heritage Foundation conference call on October 3, 2022, regime change and getting back to power and dominance, then the chances of that happening have been proven to be NIL.

- Ethiopian Allied Forces “Victory” Scenario:

The Allied Ethiopian Army’s success in the battlefront and the diplomatic arena was achieved by executing the following strategies:

- Applying lessons learned from the previous two rounds of war

- Using Drones and dominating airspace

- Deploying thousands of recently trained fighting forces

- Harnessing the large public support within the rest of Ethiopia

- Engaging in timely Diplomatic and Social Media responses to fight TPLF propaganda machines and false narratives

For the above four reasons and recent confirmed success in battle, it is correct to state that the Ethiopian Allied Forces Victory Scenario has an 8 in 10 (80%) chance of occurring.

- Peace Negotiation – preceded by orderly disarmament and cessation of hostilities

At the Heritage Foundation virtual meeting on October 3, 2022, Gen Tsadkan said it does not matter who fired the first shot. But it does matter since if you resort to violence, you become an insurrectionist. TPLF cannot be trusted with its professed duality of peace-loving yet fight-till-the-end persona. It must immediately disavow violence, lay down arms and cease all hostilities. The Ethiopian government may then be willing to negotiate the further handling of TPLF officials and operatives. One precedent that could be implemented is how the Tamil Tigers’ leadership was treated after their loss. We do not even need to go there; we simply have to remember the aftermath of the defeat of Woyanne 1.0 on 17, October 1943. Rebel Leaders Fitawrari Yeebio Woldai, Dejazmatch Negusse Bezabih, Basha Gugsa Mengesha, and Blata Hailemariam Reda surrendered and were imprisoned from 2 years to 23 years.

Many atrocities and crimes have been committed by the TPLF (Woyanne 3.0) insurgency, beginning with their ‘preemptive’ surprise attack on the Northern Army on November 3, 2020. Then TPLF group continued its criminal actions of slaughtering innocent people and looting and destroying the infrastructure of the Amhara and Afar regions. Therefore, for the sake of peace and ending violence, the two parties may negotiate on the disposition of these issues as they plan to do so on October 9, 2022.
https://zehabesha.com/lasting-peace-possible-solutions-to-the-war-in-northern-ethiopia/