Interrogating the Ethiopian National Dialogue

Teklu Abate Bekele

Abstract

Other than opinion pieces and news coverages, there lacks formal studies on the Ethiopian National Dialogue (END). More rigorous analyses drawing on varied data sources are needed for holistic understanding. This exploratory study aspires to extend the debate on this significant and timely national agenda. Specifically, the study answers these questions, How do Ethiopians and people of Ethiopian origin view of the END? What provisions are made available in the Proclamation that establishes and governs the END Commission? These questions are answered through methodically examining the Proclamation itself and surveying the opinions people hold about the national dialogue. Conceptions from policy analysis, critical discourse analysis and institutional theory are used as analytical tools. The existence of different opinions and disagreements among various political and opinion leaders and people on the most fundamental national issues triggered the establishment of the END. The analysis also indicated that the END is multiscalar (it has several levels of engagements) and multipurposed (it has socio-cultural, political and economic motives and purposes). Typical challenges linked to the END include the lack of conceptual clarity, issues linked to the credibility and acceptability of the Commission, and the inclusion or exclusion of terrorist organizations. Strategies for overcoming these and implications for planning and practicing the dialogues as well as for further study are identified.





Ethiopia’s national dialogue



Introduction

On the 29th of December 2021, the House of Peoples’ Representatives (the House) of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE) approved a proclamation that establishes and governs the Ethiopian National Dialogue Commission (ENDC). Its official title is “The Ethiopian National Dialogue Commission Establishment Proclamation No. 1265 /2021”. Out of hundreds of public nominees, the House appointed, on 21 February 2022, 11 commissioners to lead the Ethiopian National Dialogue (END). Even prior to these two milestones, there have been discussions and deliberations on the need for reaching national consensus of some sort. Following the establishment of the ENDC, Ethiopians, people of Ethiopian origin, and the international community have continued to entertain varied viewpoints about national dialogue and consensus more vigorously.

There exist varied public opinions about the founding of the ENDC. Several registered opposition (political) parties, civic organization leaders, commentators, and ordinary citizens seriously challenge the ways the ENDC has been instituted, often pointing out to the lack of transparency and public contribution to its formation as well as to the credibility and impartiality of the commissioners. Others proudly and optimistically support the institution, hoping it could contribute to alleviating the colossal challenges Ethiopia faces. There is a third majority group who neither openly opposes nor supports this national project. On the other hand, in what appears to be a response to public criticism and skepticism, the House emphatically claims that the process that led to the formation of the ENDC was all inclusive, participatory, and transparent. Overall, there still exists a lack of a shared basis of understanding about the national dialogue project and the Commission heading it.

Dialogue on the END itself should thus be considered as an integral part of the ambitious national project. Formal studies and opinion pieces as well as public debates on the national dialogue could support deeper understanding of its motives and purposes and trigger and drive evidence-based decision making at several levels. This exploratory study is part of such a dialogue and is intended to add more momentum to the already existing deliberations of many sorts about the END. The conduct of the study is specifically triggered by two factors.

Four civic organizations in the diaspora (Citizen Aspire for SDGs in Norway, EOTC Global Forum in the USA, Ethiopian Scholars in the Nordic Countries in Norway, and United Ethiopians for Peace and Reconciliation in the UK) organized a virtual joint international conference themed “Global discussion on the Ethiopian national dialogue” on April 19, 2022. Professor Berhanu Mengistu from the USA, Dr Lulseged Abebe from the UK, Dr Desalegn Chala from Norway, and Architect Yohannes Mekonnen from Ethiopia were the invited panelists. The panelists explained opportunities and challenges linked to the national dialogue and identified possible strategies for best practice. Most of the questions and reflections collected from the audience appeared to generally support the cause of the national dialogue. The seminal contributions made by the panelists and reflections from the audience motivated me to raise this question, How do people view of the END and the Commission it heads?

I have then conducted a preliminary literature review to have initial ideas for designing my study. Apart from social and broadcast media coverages, there lacks independent studies on this significant and timely national agenda. A simple Google search using the keyterm, “the Ethiopian national dialogue” results only in a limited number of opinion pieces, not mentioning news coverages (e.g. Allo, 2022; Ashenafi & Deng, 2022; Borkena, 2022; Estifanos, 2022; Gedamu, 2022; Gemechu, 2022; Harter, 2022; Kahsay, 2022; Tegegn, 2022; Tesfa, 2022; Yohannes, 2022). These pieces entertained alternative and complementary views about the phenomenon. The national dialogue is conceived to bring hope (Tesfa, 2022), unity (Gedamu, 2022) and healing (Tegegn, 2022) to Ethiopia. Others indicated that the dialogue process should include everyone (Allo, 2022), and that more women commissioners should have been included (Ashenafi & Deng, 2022). Others claimed that the national dialogue cannot deliver inclusive peace (Gemechu, 2022), deep divisions exist about the national dialogue (Harter, 2022), and that the Commission is facing interferences by internal and external entities and is inundated with agendas (Borkena, 2022).

Although these and possibly other opinion pieces and studies could contribute to our understanding of the phenomenon, more rigorous analyses drawing on varied data sources are needed for holistic understanding. This exploratory study aspires to extend the debate on this significant and timely national agenda. Specifically, the study aims to answer these questions, How do Ethiopians and people of Ethiopian origin view of the Ethiopian national dialogue? What provisions are made available in the ENDC establishment Proclamation? These questions are answered through methodically examining the Proclamation itself and surveying the opinions people hold about the national dialogue. The assumption is that a more comprehensive understanding of the phenomenon is possible through policy (proclamation) analysis and opinion analysis.

The study aspires to improve our understanding of the legal basis of the END and the opinions people hold about it. The final goal is to identify some implications for further policy making and practice by the ENDC, the House, and or the Ethiopian people at large. It is not the intention of this study to urge readers to support or otherwise the END; it rather encourages them to make informed decisions about it based on available data and analysis.

This study is organized as follows. Employing policy analysis techniques, the study first analyzes the core features of the Proclamation that establishes the ENDC. This is followed by a survey of how Ethiopians and people of Ethiopian origin view the END. The major findings of the study are then discussed, and their implications identified. The analytical frameworks which guide this study and its methodology are briefly explained first. As this is not an academic paper and as it aims at a general readership, effort is made not to use technical language. Anyone with basic English competence can easily understand the core arguments and findings of the study.

As author positionality affects the integrity of studies, I would like to clarify some points. By profession, I am associate professor of comparative and international education at the American University in Cairo and is a permanent resident in Oslo, Norway. My research, which includes policy and practice dimensions, concerns the international and comparative study of higher education systems in Africa. By citizenship, I am an Ethiopian who aspires to stay an active contributor to public discourses of all sorts. I am neither a member nor supporter of the ruling party and the opposition. However, in my scholarly and public engagements, I do not want to claim to be neutral. My analysis in this study follows the logics and principles of the scientific method. My fair analysis of the topic simply emanates from my desire to contribute to the betterment of conditions in my country, Ethiopia.

Analytical Frameworks and Methodology

This exploratory study constitutes policy analysis (the analysis of the Proclamation that establishes and governs the ENDC) and opinion analysis (survey). These analyses could support a more holistic examination of core issues linked to the END and the Commission heading it. The methods and techniques used for policy and opinion analyses are consecutively discussed below.

For supporting a meaningful discussion, the study draws on some analytical frameworks on policy and discourse analysis. The core assumption is that proclamations, laws, policies, strategies, directives, and other similar ‘technologies’ or ‘productions’ are conceived to be discursive; they inherently embody power (Heimans, 2012; Marshall, 2000; Wagenaar, 2007). Although the producer or owner of discourses or policies could claim to be impartial, rigorous interrogations could reveal traces of power embedded in text.

The Prime Minister’s office of Ethiopia had initially started the conception of the national dialogue. Later, it was decided, for reasons linked to impartiality, that the House is the right body who should oversee the END, including the selection and approval of the END commissioners. However, the ruling party, Prosperity Party (PP), technically owns the House, as most House members are PP members, supporters, and sympathizers. It could thus be argued that the Proclamation text embodies varied forms of power, or it promotes the intentions and ideology of the governing party. Meaning, the construction and production of the text, the Proclamation, is not free from inherent political interests, see the discussion section. Employing techniques and principles of policy and discourse analysis in this study are thus found useful to produce critical and fair interpretations of the Proclamation. However, the Proclamation is analyzed from the point of view of public policy and discourse and not law.

Three analytical tools are considered especially relevant for this study. Cardno’s (2018) policy document analysis framework which includes such aspects of policy as policy context, text and consequence is relevant for primarily analyzing the Proclamation. Analysis of policy (the Proclamation) context centers around examining the conditions or factors that trigger and drive its production, and the values that underpin and guide it. Policy text analysis focuses on studying the structure or organization of the policy, the core elements of the policy that are associated with national legal or regulatory requirements, and the procedures specified in the text that provide guidance for practice. The intended overall impact of the policy, the purposes or objectives of the policy, the monitoring of policy implementation, and provisions for policy revision are examined in relation to policy consequence. In sum, the Proclamation is analyzed using the trio conceptual tools of policy context, text, and consequence. This could render a more systematic and meaningful examination of the Proclamation than employing an article-by-article analysis.

For a more critical discussion and interpretation of the Proclamation and then the works and integrity of the ENDC, principles of critical discourse analysis (CDA) are invoked. Fairclough’s (2001) four organizational CDA research issues are especially found relevant in this study. Issues for interrogation include the emergence process of new discourses- the END (emergence), the ways emergent discourses become dominant (hegemony), dissemination of hegemonic discourses across levels (recontextualization), and enactment or practice of discourses (operationalization). Following the analyses of the Proclamation and the opinions of people, these four conceptual tools are invoked to render a comprehensive discussion.

Moreover, such conceptions of world society theory as decoupling, expansive structuration, otherhood, and scientization (Meyer, 2010; Meyer et al., 1997) are complementarily used to discuss issues linked to the establishment of the END and the Commission, strategies and mechanisms that could improve its legitimacy and credibility, its wider dissemination, and effective enactment. This can facilitate the identification of challenges and problems and possible strategies to overcome them.

As indicated above, the second part of the study concerns opinion analysis. To understand how Ethiopians and people of Ethiopian origin view the END, a short questionnaire is developed and distributed. Taking into consideration public opinion and media coverage of the END, the following 10 Likert-type items are constructed. The first item is meant to gather basic demographic information about the participants of the survey.

- Demographic characteristics: current residence, nationality, highest education achieved, and livelihood


- The Ethiopian National Dialogue Commission is highly needed to resolve Ethiopia’s challenges.


- The National Dialogue Commission was established in a transparent way.


- The National Dialogue Commission is an affiliate of the Prosperity Party.


- The National Dialogue Commissioners are competent to spearhead the dialogue.


- The national dialogue must engage the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).


- The national dialogue must engage the Oromo Liberation Army-Shene.


- Religious/civic organizations must be officially represented in the national dialogue.


- The Ethiopian diaspora must be officially represented in the national dialogue.


- Regardless of circumstances, I will engage in the national dialogue.


- The national dialogue will not resolve Ethiopia’s problems and challenges.

These items touch upon various controversial issues linked to the END and the Commission heading it. Questions 2 - 5 and 11 concern the ENDC and its members; 6 and 7 are about inclusion or exclusion in the national dialogue of fringe elements in society such as TPLF and Shene who are labelled by the FDRE parliament as terrorist organizations; questions 8 - 10 cover stakeholders who deserve or otherwise meaningful participation in and ownership of the national dialogue. A 5-point Likert scale is used for rating answers, where 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 respectively refer to Strongly agree, Agree, Neither agree nor disagree, Disagree, and Strongly disagree. SurveyMonkey, an internationally leading experience studying platform, is used to administer and manage the survey.

The plan of the study is to collect data, from Ethiopia and in the diaspora, about the national dialogue. The target population is Ethiopians and Ethiopian origin diaspora who can understand basic English. The focus is on those literates and educated people who are active on social media and other venues and whose voices can affect the political and social dynamics in Ethiopia. As there is not an Ethiopian platform to administer surveys of this type internationally, alternative outlets are used to administer the survey. The popular platform for latest Ethiopian news and analyses, Zehabesha, generously hosted the survey throughout the study period, May 19 to June 9, 2022. For additional circulation, the survey was also posted on my blog, Abyss, and was also shared with all my Google email and Norwegian phone contact lists.

It turned out that 88 participants showed interest in the survey, of which 86 fully completed the survey. Hundreds of people were expected to take part in the study. The reasons for this relatively speaking small sample size could be attributed to the skepticism linked to the national dialogue and the study itself. A case in point is that one of the participants of this study skipped all the items of the survey but left this text only, “You asked if the national dialogue must engage TPLF and Ola-Shene. You failed to include Amhara groups thus inadvertently exposing your hidden agenda”. The participant did not understand the context within which TPLF and Shene are mentioned in the survey and wrongly compared such terrorist organizations to peacefully struggling Amhara groups- there is not a terrorist Amhara group todate. Another reason for the sample size could be linked to the mindset many Ethiopians have about opinion studies- there lacks a culture of participating in formal studies. Regardless of the reasons, some interesting findings emerge from this study. Useful implications are identified based on the analysis of the 86 completed surveys and the analysis of the Proclamation.

The demographic characteristics of the participants are as interesting as they are impressive. As Figures 1 and 2 below indicate, 40% and 26% of the participants currently live in Norway and Ethiopia, respectively, and 50% and 24% are respectively Ethiopians and Norwegians by citizenship. What is more interesting is that 43% and 26% of the participants hold master’s and doctoral degrees (PhD’s), respectively whereas 21% have undergraduate degrees in varied areas of study. The rest of the participants did not indicate their educational qualifications.

Figure 1: Participants’ countries of residence, by numbers



Except for a handful of the participants who are in their retirement, the rest are professionals working in the public and private sectors in Ethiopia and in the diaspora. This is a highly educated sample who may not represent the general population of Ethiopia but is in line with the intention of this study- to target the educated and media-savvy segment of the population. However, as the aim is to understand the pattern in the dataset, the analysis of degrees of agreement or disagreement these participants have about the survey items are not analyzed based on these demographic characteristics. Such three themes as the national dialogue commission, inclusion-exclusion, and ownership and participation are used to organize the major findings. Percentages of agreement or disagreement are reported for the items belonging to each theme. The legal provisions available for the END are highlighted first.



Figure 2: Participants’ nationality, by numbers

 

Analysis of the Proclamation

As the introduction above indicated, Proclamation No.1265/2021 establishes and governs the ENDC.
https://zehabesha.com/interrogating-the-ethiopian-national-dialogue/