EthiopiaYonas Biru, PhD
A while back, a good friend of mine, who wants to remain anonymous, told me “Ethiopia does not have intellectuals.” He said, “what we have is trained manpower.” Indeed, we have brilliant engineers, accountants, and doctors with international repute. Seemingly, in anything that comes with manuals such as refrigerator repair, accounting, engineering, and medicine we tend to be remarkably competent. Politics requires intellectuals who are open-minded and amenable to realism, neither of which our intellectual class values. If we accept my friend’s observation, we can understand why our refrigerators function, but our politics does not.
In my opinion there is more to the phenomenon why Ethiopia’s political landscape has become an intellectual barren land. The last time Ethiopia has actively sought the guidance and counsel of intellectuals and subject matter experts was during Emperor Haile Selassie era. PM Abiy, like PM Meles, often sneers and scoffs at intellectuals and subject matter experts.
Let us take the current PM at his words. Let us also judge him by his actions. How many times has he met with his “Economic Advisory Council”, since he established it as an independent entity over a year and a half ago? The number is zero. We can also mention the Privatization Advisory Council and Independent Boundaries Commission. Ethiopians and people of Ethiopian origin teach at every Ivy League US University and serve in many influential multilateral institutions as well as technology firm at high positions. They are award winning authors and sought-after international advisors. But the PM has done little to nothing to involve them in their country’s affairs.
Ignored, and sneered at, seasoned intellectuals tend to stay clear from the Ethiopian political arena. As a result, the ሸንቁጤs and ጎንጤs of YouTube cranks have taken over the Ethiopian intellectual space. Ethiopia exists at a cross between an intellectual barren land (where enlightened intellectuals are muted) and blasted heath (where activists with intellectual and moral handicap run amok).
This is a follow up to my earlier article titled: “The Solution to Ethiopia’s Crisis Resides in PM Abiy and the Amhara Tribal Land.” It is divided into five parts. The first part deals with the inherent conflict between the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), Team Jawar, and the Oromo wing of the Prosperity Party (PP-Oromo). The second part addresses the irreconcilable differences between Team Jawar and TPLF. Understanding these two dynamics is critical to understand the conflict between PP-Oromo and PP-Amhara, which is covered in part three. Part four tackles the race to the bottom between Amhara and Oromo extremists. The last part presents the Oromo-Amhara intellectual barren land that poses an existential threat to the integrity of Ethiopia.
- The Clash between OLF, Team Jawar and ODP (PP-Oromo’s Predecessor)
For nearly 50 years, the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) was the Godfather of Oromo politics from whose tenets and hymns grew the Oromo liberation theology and a toxic grievance culture of condemnation of Emperor Menilik as an invader and genocider. The number one objective of OLF and its spinoffs was expunging the Ethiopian identity and history from the Oromo tribal land.
In 2018, Abiy Ahmed and Lemma Megersa stormed the Oromo political scene with a new paradigm, spinning OLF’s political axis out of orbit. Lemma declared “ኢትዮጵያዊነት ሱስ ነው” (Ethiopian identity is addictive). PM Abiy shattered the anti-Menilik culture, stating: "አጼ ምኒሊክ ኢትዮጵያን ከወራሪ መከላከል እና ቴክኖሎጂ በማስገባት እትዮጵያን ያስረከቡን ታላቅ መሪ ናቸው" (Emperor Menilik is a great leader who kept Ethiopia free from outside invaders and introduced technology to our nation).
The new political narrative served as a tranquilizer of sorts for OLF’s grievance-driven Oromo liberation theology. Marketing OLF’s victimhood politics became a difficult undertaking with the newly minted PM of an Oromo construct. In the meantime, Oromo activists saw the PM’s nationalist agenda as a threat to their dream of creating Greater Oromia.
Sensing the end of OLF's era and fearing the dawning of a new political season, a young Oromo activist by the name of Jawar Mohammed tried to seize the moment with a three-pronged strategy.
The first prong focused on pushing the OLF and its old guards off the cliff. The young activist, who, in the past, has written a screeching criticism of the OLF’s “failure to deliver,” stepped up his attack on the OLF President, Dawud Ibsa. On December 31, 2018, he accused him of failing to rein in the extremist elements within his organization, most particularly the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), also known as Shene. On January 21, 2019, he went further on his official Facebook page, stating “ዳውድ ኢብሳ መታሰረ ያለበት ይመስለኛል” (In my opinion Dawud Ibsa needs to be arrested).
The second prong focused on undermining the Oromo Democratic Party (ODA), led by PM Abiy. Jawar’s strategy involved polarizing and unleashing his Qerro foot soldiers to make the Oromo region ungovernable as a bargain strategy to win political concessions from the PM. Jawar told Tsion Girma of the Voice of America that Qerro was well organized with proper chains of command all the way down to every nook and cranny of the Oromo tribal land (interview part 1 and part 2).
In another interview with the Oromo Media Network (OMN), Jawar bragged “the real power resides with Qerro and that Qerro is able to takeover Addis Ababa within 24 to 48 hours.” Yet in another interview, he reaffirmed this stating “If war (“ግብግብ”) is needed, that is easier for me because all I need to do is incite Qerro and tell them let us finish the job we have started.”
He made the Oromo tribal land ungovernable and capitalized on the chaos, accusing the PM of losing control of the nation. When the government accused him and his media outlet (OMN) of inciting unrest, he said “Activism and the media are not causing fire, their advocacy and reporting is just fueling a fire lit up by the action and inaction of the political parties and their leaders.”
Despite his admitted “fueling a fire” supposedly lit by government action or inaction, he still presented himself as an agent of peace, stating: (1) “There was no political leader I have not tried to persuade on the need for a transition roadmap”, and (2) “I was busy traveling across the country to help stabilize a population that was left with no laws and enforcement mechanism.” Balancing the dual role of a stealth conflict peddler and a heralded peacemaker was his modus operandi.
Jawar’s third-prong strategy aimed at creating a political force between OLF’s liberation theology and ODP’s agenda that he considered to be leaning toward a nationalist agenda. He understood that if he found a way to democratize the current tribal system, he could give Oromo a structural advantage to rule Ethiopia for generations to come. His strategy was introducing a seismic shift from Oromo liberation theology to Oromo domination enterprise, under the rubric of democracy.
In reality, he was not prepared for a democratic Ethiopia. What he wanted was to create a hegemonic Oromo tribal land while giving lip service to democratic principles. For example, on the issue of tribe-based vs. other forms of federalism, in July 2018, he warned the PM on his twitter handle, stating “Multinational federalism engrained in the current constitution is here to stay. It is not up for discussion let alone negotiation.” This was not an off-the-cuff slip of the tongue. In September 2019, he followed it up with an ultimatum to the PM’s party, dictating the ODP could not go to the elections before it accepts ethnic federalism as a sacrosanct position of the Oromo.
He stated: “We must build a consensus and have a united front behind the current ethnic federalist system… We cannot allow ODP behave like a ship that has lost its compass… They cannot tell us this is their party, and they can do what they choose to do. We will not allow that.” He added: If the PM strayed away from Jawar’s vision he will receive Ethiopia’s “expiration date.”
The PM ignored the ultimatum and established the Prosperity Party (PP) that aimed to bring tribal parties under an umbrella of a nationalist party coalition. The gloves were taken off for a match down between Oromo’s two most popular leaders: Abiy v. Jawar.
- The Conflict Between Federalist Parties: Team Jawar v. TPLF
In 2019, when TPLF was trying to establish a coalition for federalist forces, Jawar neither joined nor supported the effort. There are two reasons. Jawar who pushed OLF leaders of the cliff to consolidate his leadership of the Oromo political space, was not going to play second fiddle to TPLF in a federalist coalition. Today, Jawar is trying to create a coalition for federalist forces, and TPLF is not in the initial list. TPLF’s sense of Tigrayan exceptionalism and superiority would not allow it to play second fiddle in a Jawar led federal coalition
There are also irreconcilable differences between the two parties. TPLF’s agenda was and continues to be using the Constitution to empower itself. Its interest is having a voting right over and above its population weight. Its demand is to get the same voting rights with Oromo and Amhara tribal lands, following the EPRDF template. This conflicted with Jawar’s agenda aimed at creating an Oromo dominated Ethiopia. This effectively downgraded Tigrayans from Alpha Tribe (አውራ ብሄር) to Subordinate Tribe (አጋር ብሄር) in the national politics.
Wearing the አጋር ብሄር garb that TPLF tailored for other minority tribes did not sit well with the Tigrayan mindset of Axumite superiority. TPLF understood that having lost its monopoly over Ethiopia’s economic enterprises and given Tigray’s lack of natural resources, if its voting power is limited by its population size, it will be permanently in Ethiopian national politics. This intractable political realism came on a head-on collision with the TPLF’s fanatism of Tigrayan supremacy in November 2020. The civil war that TPLF triggered was primarily the result of the conflict between Ethiopia’s political reality and TPLF’s unmitigated fancy for tribal superiority.
Just like Jawar’s ultimatum led to his spectacular implosion, the civil war rendered TPLF utterly irrelevant. On all counts, Team Jawar, OLF, and TPLF saw their stars dimming and the reservoir of their followers' fervor and militancy dwindling. One would think that PP-Amhara and PP-Oromo would celebrate the turn of events to advance the grand PP agenda, but that is not happening. The question is why?
III. The Hatch-Patch Nature of Prosperity Party (PP)
Initially, the Prime Minister’s plan was to go from tribal parties (ODP, ADP, SDP, etc) to a nationalist Ethiopian Prosperity Party (EPP) in one swoop. However, the “E” was dropped after tribalist elements within the ODP resisted the planned quick transition. The consensual solution was to adopt a halfway-house strategy akin to using a bike with training wheels. Under the arrangement, each tribal land was allowed to tag its name to PP. As a result, it was agreed to use PP-Oromo and PP-Amhara for an unspecified grace period until members of the ODP get used to the idea of ኢትዮጵያዊነት as the party’s overriding identity.
In principle there was a general agreement on the endgame as publicly stated by the top leaders.
- “መፍትሄውየኢትዮጵያን የፌዴራል አደረጃጀት ከብሄር ማንነት ማላቀቅ ነው” ~ Abiy, Chair of ODP)
- "የኢትዮጵያዋና የደሕንነት ሰጋት የብሄር ፖለቲካ ነው" ~ Temesgen Truneh, President of Amhara.
- “The Way to go forward would be to transform EPRDF from a front into a one party”~ Mustafa Omer, President of the Somali tribal land.
In practice, tribalist elements in PP-Oromo resisted the idea of abandoning their training wheels. The patching of PP-Oromo and PP-Amhara proved to be a marriage of convenience rather than a merger of souls. The marriage was complicated and fraught with anxiety and ambivalence from the day they made their “till death do us part” matrimonial vows on the altars of the Prosperity pulpit. The question is: What caused the anxiety and ambivalence?
There are historical, psychological, and cultural reasons. To start with, PP-Oromo is an amalgamation of members who run the gamut from extremist tribalists to genuine nationalists. Officially, all members profess their allegiance to the tenets of PP-Oromo. In private, some of them pledge their allegiance to OLF, Jawar or even Shene Oromo, while enjoying the spoils of power as members of PP-Oromo. There are also those who are committed to PP’s tenets in principle, but their mind set remains hostage to OLF’s grievance politics. They control the levers of power but lack the psychological adaptation necessary to manifest the temperament, and mindset of a leader.
By no means is the tug of war between PP-Oromo and PP-Amhara limited to the psychological paralysis of PP-Oromo leaders. The conflict is also rooted in divergent priorities and expectations. PP-Amhara wants to see the current tribe-based PP structure to dissolve and give way to a truly integrated national PP, as envisioned when the party was established. Some members of PP-Oromo seem to be bent on throwing sand in the political process to undermine the PP agenda.
The PM’s challenge was to strike a balance between PP-Amhara’s impatience and PP-Oromos aversion to change. His failure to rein in PP-Oromo made it difficult for moderate members of PP-Amhara to fend off growing assaults from extremist factions within the Amhara tribal land.
Moreover, the recent purging of members of PP-Amhara such as Gedu Andargachew and Yohannes Buayalew from the PP party leadership and government power structure provided both spark and fodder for Amhara resistance. The lack of transparency about the purging of two PP-Amhara high-level officials created a feeding frenzy for the YouTube community.
ተቃዋሚን ማሰር መሸነፍ ነው
“ተቃዋሚን ማሰር መሸነፍ ነው” is a phrase popularized by PM Abiy. Loosely translated it means “to arrest opposition members is to admit defeat.” In framing a popular political narrative and winning the hearts and minds of the Amhara people, the government lost to fast-talking third-tier YouTubers. Embarrassingly, they ran circles around the government’s public relations machinery.
The claim that leaders of PP-Amhara are sold-out agents of PP-Oromo gained traction with a dizzying momentum. The negative propaganda narrative became a staple of mainstream news. In the meantime, both the government and state government public relations officials remained alternatively in deep-sleep and clinical coma, to put it rather generously.
The governments’ response was mass arrest to the tune of over 4500 activists, extremist, and moderates alike. Of these, the PM alleged 3500 are members of the Amhara special force who fled their duty stations with their weapons. That means about 1000 of the arrested were activists and others. The very PM who, in 2018, promised the people of Ethiopia “እያጣራን እናስራለን እንጂ አስረን አናጣራም” told the Parliament at this week’s speech “የታሰሩት እየተጣራ ይለቀቃሉ.”
Alas, the democratic reform has been aborted. Political prisoners whom several judges have ordered to be released on bail are often kept in jail in violation of the rule of law. As the French say, justice is like virginity. Once assaulted, it will never remain intact.
- The Race to the Bottom between Amhara and Oromo Extremists
The tension between PP-Oromo and PP-Amhara and the PM’s failure to rein over them have grave consequences. The inter PP party conflicts has led to a race to the bottom between Amhara and Oromo extremist elements. The problem is more pronounced in the Amhara tribal land. At best, the Amhara public considers PP-Amhara’s patience and judicious efforts to resolve inter-party conflicts as a lack of resolve. At worse, the public sees it as a betrayal of the people of Amhara in the face of assumed and/or real assault from the PP-Oromo camp.
Speaking of triggering a race to the bottom, let us start with Shimeles Abdissa. He is the President of the largest tribal land both by population and a high-level official in PP-Oromo and PP-National. One would think self-interest would oblige him to position himself to be the next PM. This would presume showing leadership in keeping the governing status quo stable. Sadly, his political utterances are often aimed at either appeasing Oromo extremists or dissing the Amhara and, therefore, feeding fodder to Amhara extremists who are itching for a fight.
The fact that he has been delivering polarizing and inciting statements both in private meetings (“convince
https://zehabesha.com/in-the-oromo-amhara-intellectual-barren-land-resides-ethiopias-burial-ground/
No comments:
Post a Comment